Posts Tagged ‘Lies damned lies and statistics’

Doogie2K
Apr 11th, 2012
4:27PM UTC

SNN Predicts: 2012 Conference Quarter-Finals

Here we go again on our own, goin' down the only road we've ever known

Welcome to the fifth (!) annual SNN Predicts series of articles (sixth overall, if you count the 2004 version done on the forums, lost to the mists of time but notable for the fact that I went 0-4 in series involving the Flames), in which we act like we know what we’re talking about and make our (mostly) blindingly obvious predictions, with a shocking amount of success, considering some mainstream reporters usually wind up under .500 by the time the Stanley Cup is finally awarded somewhere around Canada Day. This is also at least my third year in a row copying and pasting the same intro, because I’m cool like that. Some surprise changes in the seeding in the last few days of the season, at least if you decide three days in advance to use SportsClubStats’ projections to pregame for this post. What the fuck, Ottawa? Really? Whatever. In other news, congrats to Phoenix for their best-ever playoff seed despite losing their #1 goalie for nothing over the summer (Don Maloney should win the Sam Pollock Memorial Award for GM of the Year That Isn’t Technically Named for Trader Sam but Really Should Be, because holy shit that dude can build a hockey team on the budget of your average indie flick), and congrats to Florida for breaking their playoff drought despite being pretty Goddamned terrible. Hooray for the Southleast Division and stuff.

Also note that I’ll probably be relying on fancystats way more this year, just because I’ve had less than zero time to watch teams play, for the most part. I’m grumpy about it, but I’m hoping I can make up for it in the later rounds. [Ed: And I think after citing the fancystats I've ignored them in at least half of the predictions. Oh well.]

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Doogie2K
Mar 22nd, 2012
3:38PM UTC

2012 WHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Preview: Hitmen vs. Wheat Kings

I hate the Wheaties. Like, seriously hate them.

1998 CF 2005 CSF 2007 CSF 2009 CF 2010 CF 2010 RR 2010 SF
4-1 4-3 4-2 4-0 4-1 5-1* 5-4*

* – Denotes single-game result in Memorial Cup competition.

That last one still hurts my soul every time I think about it. Sigh.

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Doogie2K
Oct 28th, 2011
10:02AM UTC

Update to The Pattern

I really need to get back to watching "Fringe" at some point.

10/9 10/13 10/15 10/17 10/18 10/20 10/22 10/25 10/27
1-1 1-1 3-4 2-1 1-2 1-1 2-0 3-2 2-1
  • Games vs. VAN: 2 GP, 1-1-0, +6/-6, 6.00 GPG, no games with fewer than five total goals.
  • All other games: 7 GP, 3-1-3, +10/-7, 2.43 GPG, no games with more than three total goals.

Khabibulin for Vezina.

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Doogie2K
Oct 26th, 2011
12:43PM UTC

On Pattern Recognition

We're above .500 through eight games! PLAYOFFS!!!!!11

The table below contains the scores of all eight Oilers games thus far this year, with EN/SO goals removed. Without peeking, see if you can find the pattern in the following table. Answer after the jump:

10/9 10/13 10/15 10/17 10/18 10/20 10/22 10/25
1-1 1-1 3-4 2-1 1-2 1-1 2-0 3-2

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Doogie2K
Jun 16th, 2011
10:57AM UTC

SNN Predicts: 2011 Playoff Wrap-Up

Montreal is charging Vancouver with plagiarism. Just like in '94.

Doogie Hoop Matt Gerard Result
4-1 4-1 4-3 4-2 4-3
0-1 0-1 1-0 1-0 W-L
4 4 0 1 GO
0 0 1 0 PS
8-7 11-4 9-6 11-4 W-L
33 27 34 34 GO
6 4 2 1 PS

Well, I’ll confess to a bit of embarrassment. I really thought Thomas looked vulnerable after the Tampa series, but he got his shit together and earned that Conn Smythe Trophy. Then again, one could also reasonably say that Vancouver laid an egg as much as Thomas et al. shut them down. Injuries were a factor, to be sure: Henrik Sedin and Ryan Kesler, at least, were playing on one leg, while Dan Hamhuis, Mikael Samuelsson, and in Game 7, Mason Raymond, were all badly hurt enough to miss the Finals. But injuries are always a factor, for both teams: Marc Savard (remember him?) and Nathan Horton were both MIA with concussions for all and most of the Finals, respectively. In the end, part of the blame obviously has to go to Luongo, who sieved it up in the three Boston games, and was okay but not good enough last night when he needed to be at his best. But on the other hand, he was brilliant in Games 1, 2, and 5; he had no goal support throughout the series. He needed to allow 0 or fewer goals in five of the seven games to win, and in Game 6, both Canucks goals came in garbage time, well after Luongo had finished for the evening. Luongo wasn’t good enough, but neither were the players in front of him. This is a team loss, and any insinuation that this automatically makes Luongo not a Big Game Goalie, and that this was a career-defining moment, defining him as a Loser, is all absurd. He’s played in big games before and won, he’s bounced back from shit games before with brilliant performances, and this loss only defines his career if he never makes it back.

But enough about the losers; credit must be given to the champions where it’s due. Thomas, as noted, was brilliant, giving up just eight goals in seven games, which must be some kind of record, made the most saves in Stanley Cup Playoffs and Stanley Cup Finals history, finished with a stats line of 1.98/.940, and pitched four shutouts, two of them in the Finals (the two SO stats, funny enough, mirror those of Luongo). Chara and Seidenberg did their job in shutting down the Sedins’ cycle game. Methuselah Recchi went out in style, with seven points in the Final series. Brad Marchand came out of nowhere to be a Luongo-wrecking machine, scoring five goals in the Bruins’ four victories and setting a team rookie record with 11 post-season goals. David Krejci led the NHL in playoff goals (12) and points (23). They overcame 2-0 playoff series deficits for the first two times in their 86-season history in Montreal and Vancouver, winning both series in seven games. After putting forth one of the biggest choke jobs in the history of professional sport last year, the Bruins bounced back and proved themselves worthy contenders. Congratulations to the better team.

As for our little contest here, well, as I noted before, Hoop won again, with Gerard placing second, Matt (the only one to nail the Final series) third, and me fourth. Congratulations etc., I hate you all, see you next year.

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