Posts Tagged ‘Lies damned lies and statistics’

Doogie2K
Jun 4th, 2014
5:00PM UTC

SNN Predicts: 2014 Stanley Cup Finals

For all the marbles!

Doogie Gerard Matt Result
4-2 4-3 4-2 4-3
4-2 4-1 4-1 4-2
0-2 0-2 2-0 W-L
7 7 2 GO
0 0 0 PS
10-4 5-9 10-4 W-L
23 40 24 GO
3 0 1 PS

Whoops.

I suppose this is what I get for abandoning my April pick for the Cup for a spurious reason, but given that the series went to G7 OT, I feel pretty okay about getting it wrong, especially since I still have that tiebreaker in my back pocket. The Habs…sigh. Let us not speak of that prediction again.

Last series of the year. I think we all know how these picks are going to go, but let’s go through the motions, anyway.

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Doogie2K
May 17th, 2014
10:00AM UTC

SNN Predicts: 2014 NHL Conference Finals

This is the most placeholdery post I've ever chucked into the queue.

Doogie Gerard Matt Result
4-1 4-2 4-2 4-3
4-1 4-0 4-1 4-2
4-3 4-2 4-2 4-3
4-2 4-2 4-1 4-3
3-1 2-2 3-1 W-L
6 9 7 GO
0 0 0 PS
10-2 5-7 8-4 W-L
16 33 22 GO
3 0 1 PS

I feel kind of robbed, you know, and I don’t just mean the miniscule turnaround time, either. Seriously, why’d Chicago have to go and win Game 6? They robbed us of four Game 7s. How rad would that have been?

Anyway, at the start of the playoffs, I think most analytics types had LA, Chicago, Boston, and the Rangers as their final four, and three out of four ain’t bad. Certainly, Boston’s ouster by Montreal was an upset, though not a totally unpredictable one. Regardless, given how we got here, I think this is pretty much Chicago’s Cup to lose at this point. The Kings and Rangers have both played 14 games already, and historically no team has ever played two seven-gamers and gone on to win the conference finals. It’s certainly possible this time around, as both teams are well-matched against their opponents, but if things hold true to historical form, we’re looking at Chicago-Montreal in the Finals, and that’ll be a fast series in more than one sense.

But hey, that’s why they play the games, right? So, let’s get to it and make some hasty calls.

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Doogie2K
May 1st, 2014
4:00PM UTC

SNN Predicts: 2014 NHL Division Finals

I'm sorry, I don't have anything pithy to add this time around. Tight turnaround.

Doogie Gerard Matt Result
4-3 4-0 4-1 4-2
4-3 4-2 4-2 4-3
4-2 4-1 4-1 4-3
4-3 4-1 4-2 4-2
4-1 4-3 4-0 4-1
4-3 4-2 4-2 4-0
4-2 4-0 4-3 4-2
4-1 4-3 4-2 4-3
7-1 3-5 5-3 W-L
10 24 15 GO
3 0 1 PS

So, that happened. (And yes, I know, those are no longer our tiebreakers. But the spreadsheet and table templates were already there and I’m lazy. For Entertainment Purposes Only™.)

The first round sure was weird, huh? I mean, it started out West with St. Louis vomiting up their division championship, and San Jose failing to take advantage of a faltering Anaheim down the stretch, losing to a bunch of shit teams in March and April to accept second. With those placements, instead of four dead easy picks and two second-rounders for the ages, we had four coin-flips that ended with two contenders dropping and two pretenders moving on. I’m still in such disbelief about the San Jose-LA outcome that I started writing up a preview of Anaheim-San Jose until I realized halfway through that they had actually lost. Then out East, we had the 3-1 lead become the most dangerous in hockey, the 2014 Canadiens unpredictably and inexplicably looking like the 1977 Canadiens against Tampa Bay, Steve Mason looking like a competent goaltender, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria.

What’s that leave us with? Zero compelling match-ups in the Campbell (see you in the conference finals again, San Jose LA and Chicago), and two compelling rivalries that both seem to have seemingly predictable results, though we shall certainly see.

Note also that my write-ups aren’t nearly as in depth this time around, in part due to time constraints, and in part because a lot of the core information hasn’t changed since round one, with the exceptions duly noted. Note also that in accordance with tradition, Matt’s picks will be late.

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Doogie2K
Apr 16th, 2014
4:00PM UTC

SNN Predicts: 2014 NHL Division Semi-Finals

New Formats! Come and Getcher New Formats!

Welcome to the seventh annual SNN Predicts series of articles (eighth overall, if you count the 2004 version done on the forums, lost to the mists of time but notable for the fact that I went 0-4 in series involving the Flames), in which we act like we know what we’re talking about and make our (mostly) blindingly obvious predictions, with a shocking amount of success, considering some mainstream reporters usually wind up under .500 by the time the Stanley Cup is finally awarded somewhere around Canada Day. This is also at least my fifth year in a row copying and pasting the same intro, because I’m cool like that.

This year we’ve got a slightly confusing playoff format change, which as produced an unfortunate set of matchups out west. Unfortunate in the sense that two Cup contenders will be gone before half of Canada’s changed out their winter tires; we could have some rollicking fun watching those series in the meantime. Meanwhile, out east we have one elite team, one team riding its reputation, and a collection of question marks filling out the ranks. All of which should make for one confusing set of predictions. New this year: thanks to Extra Skater I can do some back-of-the-envelope fancystats on the season series, which is exactly as exciting as it sounds. Whether I mean that ironically or not depends on your perspective, I suppose. Given that I didn’t have much time to watch the NHL this year, it’s pretty much all I have to go on, so expect a lot of dry numbers and not much awareness of anything else; it served me shockingly well last year.

In keeping with the “new format” idea, we have a new tiebreaker. Specifically, I jacked it from the NHL.com brackets: first tiebreaker is correct champion, second is correct runner-up, third is closest to the correct number of goals, over or under (no Price is Right rules).

With that, let’s get to it.

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Posted in Sports | 19 Comments »


Doogie2K
Jul 11th, 2013
7:39PM UTC

Goalies of the Neo-Smythe

Or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Doob

Today on Twitter, I wound up chatting with the Puck Podcast’s Doug Stolhand about the Oilers’ off-season, which produced the following exchange:

So I’ve done precisely that. I went through the presumed starters and backups of each of the seven teams in the NHL’s westernmost division – which I’m calling the “Neo-Smythe,” because it sounds like something out of a cyberpunk dystopian future, and that feels somehow appropriate given the news of late – and looked at their numbers for the last three seasons. I grabbed both their total stats and their even-strength save percentage, to give me a good idea of what we’re looking at. After the jump, we start with the Oilers, then follow with the rest of the division.

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