Posts Tagged ‘Lies damned lies and statistics’

Doogie2K
Mar 21st, 2013
10:14AM UTC

SNN Predicts: 2013 WHL Eastern Conference Quarter-Finals

ColesNotes Edition

1998 CSF 2002 CQF 2008 CSF
4-3 4-3 4-2

Look, I’m sick enough that my attendance at the first two games (tonight and tomorrow night) are going to be game-time decisions. I’m going to link to statistical breakdowns here and here, and add a couple of notes:

  • The 1-3 record is a bit deceptive. One of those losses came with 0.8 on the clock. Ouch. Another came in a game where Eetu Laurikainen was a brick wall after Driedger sieved it up in the first. It could easily be 2-2 or 3-1.
  • From the stats, it looks like Calgary has the advantage in offence, overall depth, and even-strength play; Swift has the advantage in goaltending and special teams. Goes without saying that solving Laurikainen on the man advantage would be a huge boon.
  • The Hitmen outshot the Broncos in three of four games. Without knowing anything about score effects, it’s hard to say what the deal is there, but it’s what we’ve got, and it’s at least somewhat encouraging.
  • Of the four Eastern series, this is easily the one with the best upset potential. Laurikainen has shown he can steal a game in Calgary already this month, and while the playoffs tend to lean less on special teams overall, it’s often true that early in the playoffs the refs like to flex their muscles before putting the whistles away about halfway through the first round. That’s potential trouble. And Swift does seem to match up better against Calgary than any of the other low seeds do against their opponents (though Edmonton-Kootenay might be interesting; Kootenay’s been a top-tier team since Christmas, and whether that’s their true talent or not, there’s no way to know whether that’ll end right away or not).
  • Injuries will also be a factor. The Hitmen, at least, have been plagued by injuries or absences from key players all year, which probably contributed to some of the inconsistency I’ve seen from them throughout. Hopefully, everyone’s as close to 100% as they can be at this point, with a large number of vets sitting out at least one, if not both, of last week’s back-to-back games against Kootenay to close out the season. And hopefully the week-and-change off doesn’t leave too much rust on guys like Roach and Rissling, who are going to be leaned on a lot throughout these playoffs.
  • I’m nervous about this series, but ultimately optimistic. There’s just enough arrows pointing in Calgary’s direction that I think this will be a tough but winnable series. Hitmen in seven.

Go Hitmen! *blows nose* (Oh geez, not again.)

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in Sports | No Comments »


Doogie2K
Sep 5th, 2012
1:51PM UTC

Everybody Lies

Or: The first and last time I ever agree with someone from Brandon about junior hockey


Hugh Laurie can see into your soul, and he knows you’re full of it.

Labour negotiations are easily the worst part of being a fan of any sport. There’s the bickering back and forth, often between two similarly unsympathetic groups of rich guys, there’s the threat of a lost season, or at least lost games, and there’s the encroachment of business and law principles on what is, at the end of the day, a game, entertainment. But worst of all, there’s the blatant lies.

The theme of this post was inspired by the NHL’s “leak” that they lost $240M total in the last two years. Dirk Hoag and Ryan Lambert have already gone to town on the numbers here, but it continues to strike me the sheer bloody audacity of making such a claim at the last minute. Like they didn’t think the media and fans would check up on their numbers and find that they didn’t pass the smell test? Like they really thought that we’d believe that the current proposals are anything other than a blatant cash grab by the League’s richest teams that doesn’t address a system that forces poor teams to pay players more than they can afford in the name of parity, while refusing to address the gaping revenue disparity? Come on, Snider/Jacobs/Dolan, don’t insult our intelligence like that. At least invent a believable lie.

And on that note, we have the comically inept CHLPA, which should be the one real sympathetic side in all of this. Some of the things they’re reportedly fighting for – larger stipends, better education funding, likeness rights royalties – and the potential knock-on effect of more transparency in player payment are commendable and long overdue in the lucrative business of elite junior hockey. And yet they’ve somehow found a way to make a hash of things at pretty much every turn. First, there were the reports that they were seeking part of Hockey Canada’s slice of the ever-growing World Junior pie. At first blush, you understand where they’re coming from – CHLers make up virtually all of Team Canada, and have notable representation on several other international squads. The problem is, that money goes back into the development of thousands upon thousands of amateur players: today’s CHLers almost certainly benefitted directly from the money raised by Canada’s U20 gold-medal dynasty in the middle of last decade. Then, there was the hiring of retired NHL enforcer and QMJHL alumnus Georges Laraque as executive director, despite and apparent lack of training in business, law, economics; indeed, there’s no evidence of any negotiation experience that did not involve his carpal and metacarpal bones, unless you count his (likely PR-driven) appointment as Deputy Leader of the Green Party of Canada. I’m open to the notion that he’ll do a good job, but right now, there’s no reason to think the CHLPA got anything close to the best available candidate.

But the thing I wanted to dive into a little more were the ticket revenue numbers the PA released on their Twitter feed the other day, for all 60 CHL teams, as part of their argument that CHL players are woefully underpaid. Let’s leave aside the fact that these numbers don’t add up to anything close to supporting Laraque’s public statements, as noted by Yahoo!’s Cam Charron. Three sets of WHL numbers caught my eye:

(more…)

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Sports | No Comments »


Doogie2K
Apr 11th, 2012
4:27PM UTC

SNN Predicts: 2012 Conference Quarter-Finals

Here we go again on our own, goin' down the only road we've ever known

Welcome to the fifth (!) annual SNN Predicts series of articles (sixth overall, if you count the 2004 version done on the forums, lost to the mists of time but notable for the fact that I went 0-4 in series involving the Flames), in which we act like we know what we’re talking about and make our (mostly) blindingly obvious predictions, with a shocking amount of success, considering some mainstream reporters usually wind up under .500 by the time the Stanley Cup is finally awarded somewhere around Canada Day. This is also at least my third year in a row copying and pasting the same intro, because I’m cool like that. Some surprise changes in the seeding in the last few days of the season, at least if you decide three days in advance to use SportsClubStats’ projections to pregame for this post. What the fuck, Ottawa? Really? Whatever. In other news, congrats to Phoenix for their best-ever playoff seed despite losing their #1 goalie for nothing over the summer (Don Maloney should win the Sam Pollock Memorial Award for GM of the Year That Isn’t Technically Named for Trader Sam but Really Should Be, because holy shit that dude can build a hockey team on the budget of your average indie flick), and congrats to Florida for breaking their playoff drought despite being pretty Goddamned terrible. Hooray for the Southleast Division and stuff.

Also note that I’ll probably be relying on fancystats way more this year, just because I’ve had less than zero time to watch teams play, for the most part. I’m grumpy about it, but I’m hoping I can make up for it in the later rounds. [Ed: And I think after citing the fancystats I've ignored them in at least half of the predictions. Oh well.]

(more…)

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Sports | 28 Comments »


Doogie2K
Mar 22nd, 2012
3:38PM UTC

2012 WHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Preview: Hitmen vs. Wheat Kings

I hate the Wheaties. Like, seriously hate them.

1998 CF 2005 CSF 2007 CSF 2009 CF 2010 CF 2010 RR 2010 SF
4-1 4-3 4-2 4-0 4-1 5-1* 5-4*

* – Denotes single-game result in Memorial Cup competition.

That last one still hurts my soul every time I think about it. Sigh.

(more…)

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in Sports | No Comments »


Doogie2K
Oct 28th, 2011
10:02AM UTC

Update to The Pattern

I really need to get back to watching "Fringe" at some point.

10/9 10/13 10/15 10/17 10/18 10/20 10/22 10/25 10/27
1-1 1-1 3-4 2-1 1-2 1-1 2-0 3-2 2-1
  • Games vs. VAN: 2 GP, 1-1-0, +6/-6, 6.00 GPG, no games with fewer than five total goals.
  • All other games: 7 GP, 3-1-3, +10/-7, 2.43 GPG, no games with more than three total goals.

Khabibulin for Vezina.

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Sports | 1 Comment »