Doogie	Gerard	Matt	Result
4-2	4-2	4-1	4-1
4-2	4-2	4-2	4-0
2-0	1-1	2-0	W-L
3	7	2	GO
0	0	1	PS
11-3	11-3	11-3	W-L
27	26	26	GO
2	4	2	PS

So here we are, after four months of labour nonsense, a 48-game sprint, and six weeks of playoffs, we’re finally at the end of the line. After three rounds, everyone’s essentially deadlocked, with perfect series looking like it could be the final decider in what’s been the closest round of picks since we started this nonsense. Looking at this final matchup, it’s really difficult to tell who’s got the advantage here, as evidenced by our picks below, and it should turn out to be a classic regardless of the end result. Will Chicago be the first non-Detroit team to win the double in over a decade? Will the Bruins prove that there is no love left in the Universe? Tune in tonight at 9 ADT and find out!

(W1) Chicago vs. (E4) Boston

Playoff History: Not terribly exhaustive. The Original Six era was not terribly kind to either team, though Boston fared somewhat better than Chicago, and they’ve spent most of their subsequent existence in opposing conferences.

1927 QF	1942 QF	1970 SF	1974 SF	1975 PRE	1978 QF
10-5*	2-1	4-0	4-2	2-1	4-0

* – Denotes two-game, total-goals series.

Stanley Cup Finals History: The ‘Hawks were one of the punching bags of the Original Six, going sixteen years without winning a playoff series, so it’s small wonder their history isn’t as inflated as those of their cohorts (this is just their 12th appearance; only the Rangers are worse among O6 teams). In fact, since making five appearances in 13 years during the Hull-Mikita-Esposito era (1961-73), the ‘Hawks have only been back to the Finals twice in forty years. However, they did win a Stanley Cup just three years ago, snapping the second-longest Cup drought in NHL history (49 years, just shy of the Rangers’ 54). Recent victories are great deodorant in a results-oriented business.

1931	1934	1938	1944	1961	1962
2-3	3-1	3-1	0-4	4-2	2-4
1965	1971	1973	1992	2010
3-4	3-4	2-4	0-4	4-2

The Bruins and the Flyers have always been grouped together because they like to cultivate reputations as tough teams, but they have another amusing thing in common: a lengthy history as Stanley Cup bridesmaids. The Bruins have won just six of their eighteen Cup Finals over nearly ninety years, while the Flyers have won two of eight in forty-odd years. Like the ‘Hawks, though, the Bruins do have a recent Cup: the one after Chicago’s, in fact, erasing a similarly-long drought (39 years). Also, this is the second-last Original Six matchup that had yet to happen in the Finals; the last will be New York-Chicago. Hardly surprising, really: the Rangers, Hawks, and Bruins, in order, had the worst fortunes of the O6 era.

1927	1929	1930	1939	1941	1943	1946	1953	1957
0-2	2-0	0-2	4-1	4-0	0-4	1-4	1-4	1-4
1958	1970	1972	1974	1977	1978	1988	1990	2011
2-4	4-0	4-2	2-4	0-4	2-4	0-4	1-4	4-3

Season Series: You’re shitting me, right?

Doogie Says: I am sorely tempted to borrow from Matt and take one of my laundry quarters and flip that thing because fuck, I dunno. I can’t go to my usual bit and lean on the fancystats because the teams played in two different leagues this year, so I just kind of have to eyeball it. Bruins have the better goalie and #1 D; Chicago has the better rest-of-the-D-corps and the forwards are kind of a wash. Chicago had greater regular-season success in the better league, Rask is outperforming his career numbers slightly more than Corey Crawford…eh, let’s say the coin landed on the head and not the wild animal. ‘Hawks in seven, though if it goes the other way I will not be shocked in the slightest.

Gerard Says: This really could go either way. On the one hand, Rask is really good. On the other, so is Chicago’s offense. Sure, Quick let in a couple of softies, but who doesn’t? This series is going to come down to Rask, I think. Hawks in 6.

Matt Says: I’ve been thinking on this in my free time here, and I don’t think I’ve come to a solid conclusion yet. I’m happy with either team taking it. If I flip a coin, it’s likely to land on its edge [Ed: Well, shit, there goes that idea.]. I do agree with Gerard when he says it’s going to come down to Rask. But, and I hope I’m right, it’s going to go the other way because of him. Bears in 6. [Ed: Who?]

	4	1	0			1
	3	2	2			2

Gerard (June 8): Nope. Take a look. I picked against Vancouver that year (and every other year) but I only started with “Fuck Vancouver. That’s why,” last season.

Doogie (June 9): Shit. You’re right. Objection withdrawn.

The big story coming out of the last round is the great success of “Because Fuck Vancouver, that’s why.” Perfect since its inception. Other than that, I’m awesome and Doogie still seems to think that the Rangers are an above-par team. I think Matt’s finally put away the dice.  So, without delay, here’s this round’s predictions!  I’m not going to do the typical Doogie thing of digging into teams’ pasts, because, well, I’m lazy.  But! Things will be up on time, and that’s got to count for something, right? Some justifications will likely be put into this over the next few days.

Doogie	Gerard	Matt	Result
4-2	4-3	4-2	4-3
4-2	4-0	4-1	4-3
4-2	4-1	4-2	4-1
4-3	4-2	4-3	4-1
2-2	3-1	3-1	W-L
11	10	10	GO
0	1	0	PS
9-3	10-2	9-3	W-L
24	19	24	GO
2	4	1	PS

In the interests of fairness, I’m going to retire “Because Fuck Vancouver. That’s why,” for the year since all three of the teams are in the final four. [Ed: (after game 1): I apparently really should have picked the Bruins to win though...]. The universe does not seem to hate Toronto as much as it does Vancouver (I know – it surprised me too), so that tag gets scrapped for next year.

And here come the picks.

Clarence Campbell Conference Finals

(1) Chicago vs. (5) Los Angeles

Playoff History: The Hawks and Kings have only met once in the playoffs, nearly forty years ago.

1974 QF
4-1

Doogie Says: Leaning Chicago in six.

Gerard Says: Hawks in 6.

Matt Says: Either way, I think these teams are going to be tired…and that’s gonna lead to some mistakes. Hawks in 5.

	2	4	1	3		3
	1	2	3	2		1

Prince of Wales Conference Finals

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (4) Boston

Playoff History: The Pens and Bruins met in back-to-back Wales Conference Finals in the early ’90s, series that changed the course of Cam Neely’s career. There were series before that, but no one cares because the Penguins were a joke and the Bruins were not, in those days. (Though apparently, the Bruins’ 1979 sweep of the Pens was the last time the Pens had been swept. Spoilers.)

1979 QF	1980 PRE	1991 CF	1992 CF
4-0	3-2	4-2	4-0

Doogie Says: Leaning Boston in six.

Gerard Says: Pens in 6.

Matt Says: Part of me wants Pittsburgh to go on and get Iginla the Cup just so I can point out how it didn’t even take him a full season to get one now that he’s not saddled with the Flames [Ed: Says the Avs fan. Poor Nordiques.], but of the few games in the series I saw, I still think Boston has the better shot. Not that the Penguins won’t put up a fight, but I’m questioning that the last two Pens games were anything but a fluke on their part, the bears will take it in 6.

	0	1	1	0	0
	3	6	2	1	4

Last round went pretty well, all things considered. Yeah, Montreal got nuked by injuries and a hot goalie, Boston required an historic third-period meltdown to avoid the dreaded 3-1 collapse, Pittsburgh only survived because the Islanders Pittsburghed it up themselves, and Vancouver managed to get swept in the most ironic way possible: taking too many penalties, failing to score, and screaming for Luongo to be put in net. But hey, all of us managed to do pretty well on our picks. Gerard’s clearly the big winner here.

Doogie	Gerard	Matt	Result
4-0	4-0	4-1	4-1
4-2	4-3	4-0	4-3
4-3	4-1	4-1	4-0
4-2	4-2	4-1	4-2
4-2	4-3	4-1	4-2
4-3	4-1	4-2	4-1
4-2	4-2	4-3	4-3
4-0	4-0	4-0	4-3
7-1	7-1	6-2	W-L
13	9	14	GO
2	3	1	PS

Since there’s no rest for the weary (and because the NHL would like to finish before Canada Day), round two begins the night after a pair of Game 7s. I’m tired and sick so this is going to be super fast and superficial. Enjoy?

Clarence Campbell Conference Semifinals

(1) Chicago vs. (7) Detroit

Playoff History: Extensive, as one might expect from a pair of Original Six teams, having their last hurrah before joining separate conferences next season. The most recent meeting was four years ago, when the Wings dusted off the almost-ready-for-prime-time Hawks in five.

1934 SCF	1941 SF	1944 SF	1961 SCF	1963 SF	1964 SF	1965 SF	1966 SF
3-1	2-0	4-1	4-2	4-2	4-3	4-3	4-2
1970 QF	1985 DSF	1987 DSF	1989 DSF	1992 DF	1995 CF	2009 CF
4-0	3-0	4-0	4-2	4-0	4-1	4-1

Season Series: 4-0 Hawks, though three of those wins were in OT or the SO, while the fourth was a wee ass-kicking (7-1).

Doogie Says: I think the difference in this series is going to be down to depth: Chicago’s loaded with guys who can fill the net; Detroit has Justin Abdelkader on their top line. Both are good possession teams, both have good goalies, so over the course of a series, that extra scoring will be the difference. Hawks in six.

Gerard Says: They knocked a certain team out of the playoffs a few years back. Hawks in seven. Because Fuck Vancouver. That’s why.

Matt Says: Sorry all, got massively short notice to head to work, just settling in now, still have hardly seen any hockey this season…anyhow, Chicago in 6.

	4	1	1	0	4	4	2	4
	1	4	3	2	1	2	1	3

(5) Los Angeles vs. (6) San Jose

Playoff History: The Kings and Sharks met as recently as two years ago, with the Sharks holding off the soon-to-be-champion Kings en route to yet another conference finals disappointment. If you count the Seals lineage with the Sharks, however, there’s also that forty-five-year-old first-round matchup, I guess.

1969 QF	2011 CQF
4-3	4-2

Season Series: 2-1-1 Los Angeles, with the latter “1″ being a SOW.

Doogie Says: It wouldn’t be the playoffs if we didn’t have the Sharks getting turfed in the second round by one of the few teams that’s better than them. Kings in six.

Gerard Says: They knocked a certain team out of the playoffs last year. Kings in four. Because Fuck Vancouver. That’s why.

Matt Says: Thankfully, the dice also see the wisdom in eliminating the Sharks in 5. [Ed: I'm so tempted to change this to just plain "Sharks in five," just to fuck with you for phrasing things weird.]

	2	4	1	1	3	1	2	4
	0	3	2	2	0	2	1	3

Prince of Wales Conference Semifinals

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Ottawa

Playoff History: A strong recent rivalry, as it turns out. This will be the fourth meeting in seven years for these two, and the first outside the opening round.

2007 CQF	2008 CQF	2010 CQF
4-1	4-0	4-2

Season Series: 3-0 Pittsburgh, with one of the three wins coming in the SO.

Doogie Says: The Penguins only got this far because Evgeni Nabokov is fucking terrible. Seriously, they went 47.6% FenClose/46.5% FenTied against the Islanders. Even with Vokoun, they would’ve been in trouble if the Islanders could buy a save at literally any point. Meanwhile, Craig Anderson is this year’s Mike Smith. Sens in six.

Gerard Says: Sens in five. Because Fuck Toronto. That’s why. [Ed: C-c-c-c-combo breaker!]

Matt Says: Senators in 6.

	4	4	1	7	6	4
	1	3	2	3	2	1

(4) Boston vs. (6) NY Rangers

Playoff History: The Rangers were the butt-monkey of the Original Six, so it’s not surprising that they seldom met up with their O6 bretheren: only nine matchups in nearly ninety years here, the last one taking place forty years ago.

1927 SF	1928 SF	1929 SCF	1939 SF	1940 SF	1958 SF	1970 QF	1972 SCF	1973 QF
3-1*	5-2*	2-0	4-3	4-2	4-2	4-2	4-2	4-1

* – Denotes two-game, total-goals series.

Season Series: 2-1 Rangers, though New York had one OT and one SO win, while Boston’s only win was in regulation.

Doogie Says: I don’t know what to think at this point. The Rangers got badly owned by possession by the Capitals, but then they made the conference finals last year with the same kitty-bar-the-door defence, thanks to Henrik Lundqvist (who, by the way, finished that series with back-to-back shutouts). On the other hand, the Bruins went shot-for-shot with the friggin’ Leafs. Even with their retoooling, I refuse to believe that the Leafs are as good as the Bruins. Some aspect of that was the Leafs being better than their regular-season stats, but some of that had to be the Bruins playing in second gear. Rask has been okay, Lundqvist has been awesome, neither team’s top line or PP can buy a goal, and both teams are coming off seven-gamers. A lot was made of the Bruins’ late-season heavy schedule, so let’s say that catches up to them, and Hank carries the Rangers back to the conference finals. Rangers in seven.

Gerard Says: They knocked a certain team out of the playoffs a few years back. Bruins in six. Because Fuck Vancouver. That’s why.

Matt Says: And for this one, we shall go with Bruins in 7.

	3	5	2	3	3	4
	2	2	1	4	1	1

This post is a day late, as is our custom, but I can assure you these picks were made without the benefit of knowing any of the scores in advance. What we do know is that Minnesota and Toronto are hilarious, Chicago and LA are awesome, and two excellent teams are going to vanish in the West in round one, which is a real Goddamned shame, but there you go. Also, I’ve been busy recently, so bite me. No Hoop as of yet, but things can happen at any point, because we’ve long since stopped pretending this was a professional operation. Gerard’s got one of those elsewhere at this point.

Clarence Campbell Conference Quarterfinals

(1) Chicago vs. (8) Minnesota

Playoff History: This one’s a new one for us. Minnesota’s only been to the dance a couple of times so far, so this is hardly really a surprise.

Previously On…Survivor: The Blackhawks made a surprise exit against Phoenix in the first round last year, losing the goaltending battle quite handily even as they outshot the living bejeezus out of the Coyotes. The Wild, meanwhile, make their first appearance since a first-round exit at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche in 2008.

Season Series: 2-0-1 Chicago. Minny’s OTW came in the coin-flip; Chicago’s both came in regulation.

Doogie Says: Ha ha ha ha…right. Minnesota had to spend like drunken sailors just to squeak into eighth on a tiebreaker on the penultimate day of the season, and are the only playoff team with a negative goal differential. Chicago went undefeated in regulation for half the fucking season, and finished with an .802 points percentage. Even granting that you can’t really extrapolate that out over 82 games, and that there’s shootout points in there…that’s better than the .799 pace the Red Wings put up in 1996. It’s the best points percentage since the 1977 and 1978 Habs posted .825 and .806, respectively. They’re not as good as those teams, obviously, but holy shit. The fancystats are as hilariously different as you’d expect; it’s not as grotesque as LA-Toronto would be, but it’s pretty damned close. And whereas the Maple Leafs actually have a decent goaltender (see below), the Wild have two guys who put up sub-par EVSV% and a nice story who’s probably done with hockey after he collects his Masterton. It’s quite frankly silly that I’m even still typing. You know how this is going to go. Blackhawks in four.

Gerard Says: I’m not even going to bother with this one. Hawks in 4.

Matt Says: I’m going to preface this by saying I’ve not watched a single game of hockey this season, so as much as I’d like to “intelligently” defend my title from last year, I’m basing my predictions entirely upon a coinflip and a die roll (actually, I didn’t have a coin, so it was two die rolls…). So, without further adieu, Hawks in 5.

	2	5	2	3	5	4
	1	2	3	0	1	1

(2) Anaheim vs. (7) Detroit

Playoff History: A surprisingly storied rivalry given the relative youth of the host club. Anaheim’s prevailed in two of the three most recent series, and very nearly pulled off the upset in the most recent, in 2009. That was an excellent series to watch, IIRC.

1997 CSF	1999 CQF	2003 CQF	2007 CF	2009 CSF
4-0	4-0	4-0	4-2	4-3

Previously On…Survivor: The Wings ate it early, falling in five to Nashville last year. The Ducks, meanwhile, finished near the draft lottery last year, and were also first-round victims of the Predators when last they made it in 2011.

Season Series: 2-1 Wings, all in regulation. Anaheim’s one win came early in the season; Detroit’s two late.

Doogie Says: As my esteemed colleague Gerard notes below, Anaheim’s success this year is a mirage. They kicked off the season shooting north of 11% despite getting outchanced, and basically ran out of time to regress: at the halfway mark of the season, they were 18-3-3 and +28, with an 11-point lead on LA in the Pacific; in the second half, they were just 12-9-3 and -6, and gave up four of those points with the Kings closing fast. In an 82-game schedule, they probably wouldn’t have fallen out of the playoffs as Minnesota and Toronto undoubtedly would’ve, but there’s no way they maintain their Pacific Division lead at that rate. Meanwhile, Detroit has the opposite problem: their possession is still as great as ever, even without the greatest defenceman of his generation in play, but their SH% is one of the worst in the NHL, at just 7.1%. It’s also worth noting that Anaheim had one of the best one-goal-game records in the NHL (14-8), whereas the Red Wings were among the worst (10-14; only 11-16 Ottawa was worse among playoff teams). While the goaltending is a wash (Howard and Hiller finished 0.001 apart in EVSV%), there are a lot of indicators suggesting a first-round upset here. Let’s go with the Red Wings in six. I like the sound of that.

Gerard Says: I still don’t trust Anaheim’s success this year. I feel pretty strongly that in a full season they would have collapsed like Minnesota. Detroit in 7.

Matt Says: *dierollactingasacoinflip* *dieroll* Ducks in 4. [Ed: Fucking really, Matt?]

	3	4	4	2	3	3	2	3
	1	5	0	3	2	4	3	4

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) San Jose

Playoff History: Two years ago, a fortunate bounce off a stanchion sent the Sharks home in five games and the Canucks to the Stanley Cup Finals. Not that Vancouver didn’t deserve that series, but it was a weird-ass way for it to end.

2011 CF
4-1

Previously On…Survivor: The Canucks got bounced by the eventual-champion Kings in the first round in rather perfunctory fashion. The Sharks were similarly punted by the Blues.

Season Series: 3-0 San Jose, with one coming in the coin-flip and one coming by just a goal.

Doogie Says: This is where it starts getting complicated. Vancouver’s had some good players spend a lot of time injured this year, which may account in part for their subpar fancystats (FenClose near the middle of the pack; outshot at EV). They’re getting guys back and should be better than their season suggests. At the same time…they barely beat the Wild, winning a creampuff division by just four points. Meanwhile, the Sharks, like the Red Wings, were an excellent possession team that couldn’t buy a goal for most of the year (6.6% EVSH%) and had pretty solid goaltending from Antti Niemi. Add in the season series, and the fact that the two teams have gone in opposite directions by possession since the deadline. I had a really hard time with this, because I apparently pick the Canucks the way Gerard picks against them, but in the end, there’s just too much on-paper reason to pick against them. I got burned by ignoring the evidence last year, and I won’t be this year. San Jose in seven.

Gerard Says: San Jose in 5. Because Fuck Vancouver. That’s why.

Matt Says: Better yet… *copy’n’paste* San Jose in 5. Because Fuck Vancouver. That’s why. [Ed: *facepalm*]

	1	2	2	3	0
	3	3	5	4	4

(4) St. Louis vs. (5) Los Angeles

Playoff History: My, this looks familiar. New fun fact: every playoff series between these two, in three different decades, has ended in a sweep. Weird, eh?

1969 SF	1998 CQF	2012 CSF
4-0	4-0	4-0

Previously On…Survivor: St. Louis…well, see above. Pasted the Sharks, got pasted by the Kings. Los Angeles, you may recall, won the whole shooting match last year.

Season Series: 3-0 Kings. None of the games were decided by fewer than two goals.

Doogie Says: Last year, we all thought this was going to be a tight series with little to choose from. It ended in four games, with the Blues looking frankly kind of pathetic. This year, the season series is 3-0 LA, as noted above. Really, there’s no good Goddamned reason to think this is going to be close again. And yet…there are the possession numbers. LA’s been absurd all year, though they did take a step back after the deadline (2013 Robyn Regehr is a possession black hole? The hell you say!), and St. Loo is, well, a Hitchcock team. Neither team has had consistently stellar goaltending, but it’s been good enough. Ultimately, I look at the stats, I look at the one-goal games (St. Loo has made out like bandits in them, going 14-6 but only 15-13 in clear victories), and I look at the Kings are the returning champions almost completely intact, and I give them the slight edge once again. Kings in six.

Gerard Says: St. Louis has had sketchy goaltending all year. I’m giving this to the Kings in 6.

Matt Says: Kings in 5.

	2	2	0	3	2	1	2
	1	1	1	4	3	2	4

Prince of Wales Conference Quarterfinals

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (8) NY Islanders

Playoff History: The Isles have won every series, though it’s gone the limit every time. The last series between these two teams is also the last one that the Islanders actually won, way back in 1993, when they interrupted the Pens’ dynastic aspirations. Their first meeting in 1975 was also memorable for being only the second in NHL history to see a team come back from 0-3 down to win in seven.

1975 QF	1982 DSF	1993 DF
4-3	3-2	4-3

Previously On…Survivor: The Penguins were embarrassed by the Flyers (and Marc-Andre Fleury) in a six-game loss in round one last year. The Isles’ last trip to the dance was way back in 2007, when they lost to the Buffalo Sabres in the first round.

Season Series: 4-1 Pens, all in regulation.

Doogie Says: The Internet’s draglikepull had a couple of interesting tweets today, basically showing that the Penguins are a damned good team when healthy, and kind of bad when Crosby, Malkin, and Neal are hurt. You’re probably waiting for the surprise here. That’s fine. The point is that while it’s awfully tempting to look at the FenClose and go “oh shit, NYI has a bigger number than Pittsburgh, Islanders in six!”, it’s a little more complicated than that, and with guys getting healthy again, that number kind of flies out the window. No, the actual reason to cock an eyebrow at the Penguins is, as always, goaltending. Sure, for now the stars have aligned and Marc-Andre Fleury’s had a decent season for once, and they do have Tomas Vokoun to fall back on should the Flower wilt again. That said, in a short-sample series, one or two bad losses might just be enough to tip the balance, especially since the Island of Misfit Toys did somehow manage to put together a 52% FenClose, which is pretty damned good for an eighth seed. Plus, John Tavares is just disgustingly talented. Seriously, if the Isles had been any good at all the past four years, he’d be leading NBC promos every Goddamned week. Still, the Penguins just have too much firepower, especially with their depth additions of Jarome Iginla and Brendan Morrow at the deadline (though there’s a line of thinking that they have been the opposite of additions, by and large), and especially if all of 87, 71, and 18 back. One of the other teams I’ve picked below could probably knock them off, but I just don’t think Evgeni Nabokov and that patchwork defence are going to hold the line through a seven-game series; not without some help at the other end. The Islanders will be gamers, but in the end they will fall. Penguins in six.

Gerard Says: Pittsburgh in 7. Sure, Pittsburgh is insane. But they also lost out to Philly last year. Sure, they have another goalie now, but Fleury is still expected to start, and he’s still a disaster (by my eye). I think that Crosby clinches the series, especially since this really could/should be an all-star team, but I think the Isles are going to give them a serious run for their money.

Matt Says: Pittsburgh in 5.

	5	3	5	4	4	4	4
	0	4	4	6	0	3	2

(2) Montreal vs. (7) Ottawa

Playoff History: As with last year against the Rangers, this is the first time the modern Sens have played this Original Six foe, but the original Senators (whom, again, the modern Sens have claimed lineage from) had quite the history with the Habs: every time they met, it was to decide who played for the Stanley Cup. The two clubs met four times in the NHA or NHL Finals in eight years, and once more in the semifinal after the Cup became an NHL-only trophy.

1917 LF	1919 LF	1923 LF	1924 LF	1927 SF
7-6*	4-1	3-2*	5-2*	5-1*

* – Denotes two-game, total-goals series.

Previously On…Survivor: The Habs were one of the worst teams in the NHL last year, but in their previous playoff trip in 2011, they pushed the eventual-champion Bruins to the limit, requiring the B’s to win three straight OT games to escape. The Sens gave the Rangers everything they could handle in a testy first-round series last year before bowing out in seven.

Season Series: Tied at two, with each team claiming one in the shootout, and Ottawa with the only clear victory, back in late January during P.K. Subban’s holdout.

Doogie Says: This would’ve been so much easier if the Bruins had won and the Habs had drawn the Leafs. Leafs suck, Habs in three, wham-bam-thank-you-ma’am. Ottawa makes things considerably more complicated. For starters, they’ve only got slightly worse possession numbers than the Habs, despite having their best forward and defenceman gone for most of the season. Then, there’s the fact that all three goalies they employed put up excellent to elite numbers. However, Carey Price has been no slouch at even strength, either (season-ending slump notwithstanding), and has only really faltered on the PK, which doesn’t tend to sustain. So call Montreal’s possession edge and Ottawa’s goaltending edge a wash. By shot metrics, Montreal has a slightly better PK, Ottawa has a slightly better PP. Both teams were great in clear victories and mediocre in one-goal games, with Montreal slightly better (and more frequently) in blowouts and Ottawa closer to outright bad in one-goal games. At a certain point, the only thing I can really point to is that Montreal bludgeoned Ottawa by possession in their four-game series, with their only big loss coming during Subban’s holdout, and say Montreal in seven. Implicit in that statement, though, is that this could very, very easily be an “upset.” This is probably the closest series of the ECQFs.

Gerard Says: Ottawa should never have gotten this far. Their season should have ended within the first month. Logically, they will beat Montreal in 5.

Matt Says: San Jose in 5. Because Fuck Vancouver. That’s why. Command+B damn it, not Command+V… Ottawa in 6. [Ed: *sobs*]

	2	3	1	2	1	1
	4	1	6	3	6	4

(3) Washington vs. (6) NY Rangers

Playoff History: Another familiar matchup from last year. This is the fourth time the two teams have met in five years – the Caps took the first two of the previous three series – which should produce some great animosity.

1986 DF	1990 DF	1991 DSF	1994 CSF	2009 CQF	2011 CQF	2012 CSF
4-2	4-1	4-2	4-1	4-3	4-1	4-3

Previously On…Survivor: Washington…see above. They stunned the defending champion Bruins in round one before succumbing to the Rangers in a series in which the two teams alternated games throughout. The Rangers, after disposing of the Sens and Capitals, were surprised by the Devils in the conference finals, and missed their presumed date with the Kings in the Finals.

Season Series: 2-0-1 Rangers, with the Caps’ only win being…wait for it…wait for it…a shootout!

Doogie Says: It’s been kind of fun to see the Capitals come around in the second half and lay a beating on their pathetic excuse of a division, but they seem like a house of cards waiting to fall. Ovechkin’s on a “Brett Hull in 1990” scoring run, they’re shooting north of 20% on the PP, their possession is worse than friggin’ Anaheim, and did I mention that they won the Southleast? Still, after a rough start, Holtby’s been the real deal, and Mike Green is scoring like it’s 2009 again, so they have that going for them. Meanwhile, the Rangers have suffered primarily from the fact that they haven’t been able to put a puck in the net all year; Marian Gaborik wound up sentenced to Lumbus for that very sin. But one of the highest-shooting teams in the League can’t stay off the scoresheet forever, and the Rangers are stingy enough – and Lundqvist is good enough – to keep the Caps off the board. In a way, this a bit of a mirror image of the Detroit-Anaheim series out West; it’ll be a slog, but I’ve got Rangers in six.

Gerard Says: There is not a series that I care less about, really. Washington should never have made the playoffs, and the Rangers barely squeaked in. But I dislike Nash, so BAM! Caps in 6.

Matt Says: Washington in 7.

	3	1	3	3	2	0	0	3
	1	0	4	4	1	1	5	4

(4) Boston vs. (5) Toronto

Playoff History: It’s funny, the Leafs’ move to the East in 1998 was supposed to rekindle old rivalries with Montreal, Boston, and even New York, after sacrificing the old Original Six and Norris Division rivalries with the Wings and Blackhawks. Instead, they played a bunch of series against the Sens, Flyers, and Devils, then went oh for the last CBA, and still haven’t played any of those teams in 30+ years. Whoops. Anyway, there’s a lot of old history here, but nothing that’s super relevant, the last series coming nearly 40 years ago. The Leafs have won eight of the thirteen all time, though the Big Bad Bruins of Bobby Orr et al. won each of the last three rather handily, going 12-1 in the process. It’s also interesting to me that somehow they only met once in the Stanley Cup Final (1939).

1933 SF	1935 SF	1936 QF	1938 SF	1939 SCF	1941 SF	1948 SF
3-2	3-1	8-6*	3-0	4-1	4-3	4-1
1949 SF	1951 SF	1959 SF	1969 QF	1972 QF	1974 QF
4-1	4-1	4-3	4-0	4-1	4-0

* – Denotes two-game, total-goals series.

Previously On…Survivor: As noted above, the Bruins were eliminated on an OT goal by Joel Ward of the Capitals, which their fans handled with their trademark grace and humility. The Leafs last made the playoffs in 2004, when they lost to the Flyers in the second round.

Season Series: Less bad than it’s been in previous years for the Leafs, but they still went 1-2-1 against the Bruins this year. Yes, that’s actually progress.

Doogie Says: Look. Toronto is bad. Really fucking bad. Like, every player on the team gets outshot badly while on the ice, second-worst even-strength shot differential to make the playoffs in the last six years (in just half a season!) bad. And Randy Carlyle inexplicably likes to play multiple goons on any given night, even saddling young star Nazem Kadri with both of them on his line for part of the season, because that makes a lick of fucking sense. Now, anything is possible in the playoffs, especially with good goaltending, and James Reimer is good enough to make shit happen. But let’s be real here: even with Boston backing into the playoffs – to the point where they hocked up the division lead to the Canadiens in the final weekend of the season – they’re a vastly superior team. The core of the 2011 Cup champs is still there, Tuukka Rask is a fine goalie, and whatever struggles they’re having now are almost certain to be transient. Plus, they’ve owned the Leafs in recent years. And by that I mean, “they’ve barely lost since the Kessel trade.” This, like Chicago-Minnesota, seems like a complete slam-dunk. Bruins in four, barring some Reimerian miracles.

Gerard Says: It’s the Leafs. Bruins in 4.

Matt Says: Bruins in 4.

	4	2	5	4	1	1	5	4
	1	4	2	3	2	2	4	3

	2	6	2	7	5	3	2	4
	3	0	5	3	1	4	0	3

In the end, the better team won. There’s really not much more to say than that. Plus, the scoresheet is currently busted, and I should really be finishing the already-late NHL predictions post. So instead, I present my essentially unaltered notes from tonight’s game.

• Great start by Calgary. Owned play the first five or so minutes, drew an early penalty, spent all their time in the Edmonton end.
• Failed PP, Shots 4-1 7 min in.
• Now Edmonton catching up. Great end to end play midway through the first after a tentative start by Edmonton.
• In-game interviews are useless. Mike Williamson just gave us coach-speak for “puck possession, zone time, and scoring chances are good.” Thanks for the insight.
• Shots 7-4 after 11.5 minutes. [Ed: 7-2 at the ten-minute mark.]
• Kosterman gets caught on the pinch, Rissling fails to take away the pass on the two on one, and that’s your opening goal. 1-0 Oil Kings. =(
• Shots now 10-7 15 min in. Oil Kings.
• Moroz with the dive on the Virtanen roughing penalty.
• 13-7 Edmonton 17 min in. 14-7 15 seconds later.
• Jones stops another 2 on 1. Uh oh.
• 17-7 with 1:30 to go.
• Edmonton outscores Calgary 12-2 in the first and 10-3 in the third coming into this game. Huh. (And it was 10-1 before Game 6.)
• 18-8 at the end of one. Wow. Wow. Fuck.
• And there’s a penalty four seconds into the second. Jesus, Virtanen.
• Coming into this, EDM has failed its last 16 PPs. An excellent PK this time from Calgary, after the first one gave up 3-4 shots.
• Driedger slips out of position on the initial save, no one clears as they’re all standing looking around, and it’s 2-0 on the third attempt.
• 23-8 at the 6 minute mark of the second. Le sigh.
• Technical problems with Shaw feed. Missed a penalty against Calgary. PK seems to be fine a minute in.
• Shots 28-9 with 13.5 minutes in. Two shots in 22 minutes. 24 against. Fuck me. [Ed: 26-2 over about 24 minutes.]
• Finally a PP with six to go. One shot, I think.
• Moroz gets a penalty for decking Clayton. Not sure why Clayton’s in the box, too. Oh, now the OKs have two in the box. Alright, 5v4.
• Shots 30-16 in the last minute. Here we go. 30-17 at the end.
• Third period. Last game of the playoffs, too?
• Brossoit with two enormous saves early in the third, three minutes in.
• Calgary with the first four shots of the period, five minutes in.
• Moroz’s line with a hell of a shift, ending seven and a half minutes in. Kept the play going for an entire shift in the Calgary end, just killing time and wearing down the Hitmen.
• Eight to go: The broadcaster notes that the only reason to think that the Hitmen will come back is because they’ve been lucky so far this series (“this series has been so wacky/strange,” same thing), that last year the Winterhawks were dead in the water all Game 7. Interesting thought, though luck doesn’t sustain, so I’m not confident. They’ve just had nothing for too much of the game.
• Shots 36-21, 7.5 to go. Catching up but way too late.
• WHAT THE FUCK DID KOSTERMAN DO? HE GOT HIT FROM BEHIND? YOU CALL THAT CLOSING YOUR HAND ON THE PUCK? THAT IS FUCKING BULLSHIT. HE FUCKING SWEPT IT. OH MY FUCKING GOD.
• At least the PK did its job. Five to go. Ugh.
• Shots 275-184 OKs with three to go in the series. Yeah. That sounds about right.
• Power play with two fifteen left. Man. Last chance. Timeout Hitmen. To pull Driedger or not to pull him? (Also, Henrik Samuelsson with his fourth minor of the night. How very Calder Brooks. Or, you know, Ulf Samuelsson.)
• Macek with a swing and a miss on a loose puck and an empty net. Oh my God. Two to go.
• 0:58 left. High stick negates a goal. Fuck fuck fuck.
• And that’s the ballgame. Great flurry at the end but the clock struck midnight. It happens. Well earned win by Edmonton, of the game and the series. Congratulations; now go kick Portland’s ass. Again.

And indeed, that is all she wrote. Because of my bet, Go Oil Kings. And until next season, Go Hitmen.

Game 5 was the first game I missed all playoffs, thanks to Calgary Expo, and it turns out I missed a doozy: the Hitmen got their asses kicked early, and the Oil Kings cruised to victory. You know, again.

Game 6 was shaping up much the same after the first period. Sure, the shots were close, but if we’re being honest here, Edmonton owned maybe 3/4 of the play in that period. The Hitmen couldn’t complete two consecutive passes the whole way, were taking icings and offsides like they were going out of style, and just making terrible decisions all over the ice. (Why the hell are two guys chasing behind the net?) 2-0 seemed a pretty fair representation of play, all things considered. But after the first, things seemed to settle down and be a little more even, though Chris Driedger had to make an absolutely wicked save early in the period to keep the Oil Kings from putting it out of reach early again. Spencer Humphries then gave us hope when his point shot somehow found a hole in goalie Laurent Brossoit to cut the lead in half. Hope was dashed late in the second, though, when Stephane Legault put his own rebound in on the (very) short side, in a goal Chris Driedger absolutely wants back, to make it 3-1 after two. I decided to go grab a Saddledome ice cream, since this was almost sure to be the end of the line.

The late second had been a bit of a penalty parade. It started with Greg Chase getting sent off for interference, which displeased the crowd since it looked like the Oil King he ran over – either Ewanyk or Moroz, I don’t remember – was in a position to play the puck but didn’t. A few seconds later, though, the Oil Kings took back-to-back penalties breaking up Hitmen chances. Due to the timing of them all, Chase’s penalty had just ended, but there were 10 seconds left on Lazar’s and 25 left on Samuelsson’s. I mention all this to set up the fact that I’d scarcely sat down from welcoming the team back to the ice with a bit of flag-waving when Brady Brassart one-timed a Cody Sylvester pass, making the score 3-2 just seven seconds into the period, during the very brief five-on-three, for the fastest post-season third-period goal in League history. I was so surprised, I wound up dropping my phone in the used salsa of the guy in front of me. Speaking of, I really need to clean my phone today. Anyway, the crowd exploded to life at that point and the building instantly became far more boisterous. Eight minutes later, Brooks Macek filtered a shot through traffic on another power play to tie the game. Bedlam. There were a few tense moments after that, as the Hitmen took a pair of penalties, giving Edmonton a chance to regain the lead. The penalty killers held strong, though, and we went to OT tied at three.

Early in OT, Chris Driedger made another fine save to keep his team alive in the playoffs. Let me pause here and say: I know he’s gotten lit up a couple of times this series, but he’s also the only reason this even is a series. The Hitmen have started poorly in all but one game out of the six so far, and in many of those games, carried that poor play right through the end of the game (or at least, past the point where it matters). Game 4 was wretched for him, but in the others that I saw, he more than did his job, and often got hung out to dry. If the Hitmen pull off the upset, Driedger seems like an easy choice for MVP. Anyway, after Edmonton controlled play early in OT, rattling off the first five shots of the extra frame, the Hitmen took over, and found the back of the net seven minutes in, on a screened shot by Macek. The ‘Dome exploded. We survived. Against all odds, we’re still in this series, a series we had little chance to win going in and even less chance to win after getting outscored 12-4 in back-to-back games.

It was an exhausting weekend, between Calgary Expo and this game, but it’s all worth it. Game 7 Tuesday. Stanley Cup playoffs start the same night. I’ll see about trying to get a predictions post up for that in the next day or two, depending on who’s in. Regardless, though, I’ll have something to say about Game 7 whenever that happens, and hopefully plenty more on the WHL thereafter, if circumstances demand it. Until then, Go Hitmen.

Let’s just go ahead and blame tonight’s debacle on karma and call it a day.

Game 5 Friday night in Edmonchuk. Bring home the chance to close ‘er out at home, boys. Go Hitmen.

Unless your name is Calder Brooks, and you take four fucking penalties in one night. But the rest of the team only took one man-advantage penalty, while Edmonton took eight, so call that a victory. More to the point, check out the scoreboard. *flexes*

This was probably Calgary’s best game of the playoffs to date. They had a very strong first period, outshooting the champs 13-6 and seldom getting pinned in their own zone outside the penalty kills. Even then, though, their first PK saw them generate three five-bell shorthanded chances, by Brassart, Sylvester, and Macek, any one of which could’ve opened the scoring before former Hitman Trevor Cheek cashed in on a failed pokecheck by Elliot Peterson. Still, I knew it was only a matter of time before they tied it up, given the way they were playing, and the second period opened the floodgates.

Greg Chase opened it up less than a minute in. Then on a PP, Alex Roach drove the net from the half-wall and Brady Brassart buried the rebound. A few seconds later, Peterson made up for his gaffe from before by pulling Brossoit out of position then finishing the job. In less than nine minutes, it was now 3-1, and everything was as it should have been, based on the balance of play. Four minutes later, on yet another Edmonton penalty, Calder Brooks roofed a shot from the circle to make it 4-1. Seconds later, Jesse Zgraggen fed Victor Rask, who sent Brossoit to the bench with a shot from in close. In just over 13 minutes, the game was effectively over. While the Hitmen sat back significantly thereafter – managing just three shots in the final 26:45 – it really didn’t matter at that point. One goal in garbage time when you’re up by four just isn’t that big of a deal.

The striking thing about last night’s penalties is what kind of penalties they were. It seemed like Edmonton was taking the exact same undisciplined slashing and roughing calls the Hitmen were on Friday night. While they didn’t take 14 of them, eight was certainly enough to bury the Oil Kings on this night. It was fun to be on the other end of things, though I’m under no illusion that this is how Edmonton will continue to play. Still, the last two games have demonstrated that, when the Hitmen stay out of the box, they can hang with the defending champs. They still have to win two of their next four, but the fact that they’ve already got two wins in the bank after just three games makes it much easier to envision a scenario where they pull off the upset than it was a week ago. I’m very excited and very nervous for tonight’s game.

A note of sympathy must be taken, however, for poor Tristan Jarry. Not only did I spell his name wrong on Twitter, but he slipped and fell twice in the late second period. After the second fall, a replay was shown to the tune of Blue Danube, in the most mocking in-game display I’ve seen in a long time. Not since the days of regular blowouts ending in sad bench shots accompanied by Daniel Powter’s “Bad Day” has the Saddledome media crew dug into an opposing team like that. I thought it was funny as hell, of course, but karma can be a bitch, so best not to tempt the hockey gods too much.

Game 4 goes in about three and a half hours, on Shaw TV and at the Saddledome. Jake Virtanen will be serving the second of his two-game suspension, and so far I haven’t seen any indication of how badly Greg Chase is injured after an incident behind his own net in the third period. On the other side, Griffin Reinhart was hurt last night, too – I didn’t see how – and has already been sent back to Edmonton, so there’ll be definite changes in the Oil Kings’ lineup. Here’s hoping for another victory tonight and a chance to clinch on the road on Friday. Go Hitmen!

What a fucking shame.

Pavlo Padakin was back. Everyone seemed to be more awake after the previous evening’s snoozer. Both teams had taken a bunch of penalties in the first, but you had the feeling, with the score only 1-0 Oil Kings and everyone starting to get a little surly, that it was going to be a tight but entertaining game right to the end.

Yeah, not so much.

Despite being told the score in advance due to a misunderstanding, I watched the game anyway, out of pure curiosity to see what the hell went wrong. A cursory glance at the scoresheet was instructive, but I needed to see it for myself. While the game’s been characterized as a meltdown, but I don’t think I entirely agree. The parade of slashing and roughing penalties throughout the night were nothing more than a complete and utter failure by the Hitmen to adapt to an abnormally stringent standard of enforcement. Several of those penalties seemed to me to be the sort of incidental slashes and smacks-after-the-whistle that get often let go in the regular season, never mind the playoffs. Certainly, that would explain the various flip-outs after said penalties were assessed that led to the string of ejections in the final minutes, but I don’t know that I’d classify that as a meltdown, per se. That said, if the Hitmen didn’t figure it out after taking nine PKs to Edmonton’s four after two periods, then no one can sensibly call this unfair treatment: they had it coming.

It’s worth interjecting here to say that I didn’t honestly think there was any sort of intent to Jake Virtanen’s hit, which earned him a major, misconduct, and (yet to be determined) suspension. It looked like he went for a hit, Corbett dodged out of the way, and they got a piece of each other going by, and Corbett got the worst of it. Of course, was with the Padakin injury last round, we only saw a high angle on the broadcast, so it’s entirely possible that other angles show the crime more explicitly – it wasn’t until this game that I saw the reverse angle showing the knee-on-knee contact against Padakin. It’s going to hurt to lose him – likely for one or two games – but with only one shitty angle to work with, it’s kind of hard to say more than this.

With respect to the fifth goal, there was some confusion in the media afterward. Rissling’s penalty had just expired, and thus the play was officially four-on-four, so it shouldn’t have technically been a PP goal. I’m betting what happened is that Williamson hadn’t sent over a substitute for Rissling in the box after he’d been tossed, so the now-four-on-three continued. Ordinarily, I’d lambaste a coach for failing to put someone in the box, but then ordinarily it’s a five-minute major and game misconduct with a relatively full bench. By that point, Williamson was staring down the barrel of over five minutes of continuous five-on-three time, with no hope or expectation of something like Mitch Moroz flipping his shit with around 90 seconds to go in that time frame, and four players – including two defencemen and three regular penalty killers – already in the dressing room. He needed all his bodies on the bench, so presumably he decided he’d just deal with it later. Should he have put someone in for Rissling once Moroz lost it? Maybe. I’ll still give him the benefit of the doubt here because either a) he figured he had some more whistles left to work with, or b) there had been so many penalties he’d lost track. Goodness knows the timekeeper seemed to have. Presumably, in that situation, the WHL decided that the PP stood, since the manpower situation had remained. I can’t really dispute that assessment.

All that said, I thought that, through fifty-odd minutes, it was a hockey game, and one Calgary had a decent chance of winning if they could ever stay out of the box. During the only meaningfully long stretch where they weren’t shorthanded – in the late second and early third periods – the Hitmen controlled the play and had a couple of close calls that, had they gone in, would have completely changed the complexion of the game. Also, while Chris Driedger did give up four goals for the first time this postseason, he also stopped 40 shots and managed to earn the third star, despite being pulled in the last six minutes! Who cares if he bobbled a rebound on the fourth goal? He was a hero on a night when there were really no others worth speaking of. In the aftermath of a 0-6 loss that directly resulted from horrific discipline, there is that one positive to hang on to.

I made other observations during the game, but really they’re all mostly immaterial. Sure, Elliott Peterson did some good work on the 37 penalty kills last night, and you know, good for him, but…whatever. The Hitmen shot themselves in the foot on a night where they were playing well enough to potentially win, had they played more than ten minutes at even strength all game, and that’s incredibly infuriating. Don’t get me wrong, a split out of Edmonton is still good, but at this stage of the playoffs, you can’t afford to piss away a winnable game against a better team by being stupid, and that’s precisely what they did.

Redemption hopefully comes Tuesday and Wednesday at the Saddledome for Games 3 and 4, with the homicidal goalie mask now front and centre on home ice. Let’s Go Hitmen!

Some spoilers follow.

People are calling the game “too violent” or “racist.”  Me? I just have an issue with the ending that I’ll get to in just a second.

There’s all sorts of metaphor tied in to “I’m going to have crows attack you to death,” but that’s a story for a much longer review.  I will say this though. A story about a search for redemption, initiated by the participation in the Boxer Rebellion and Wounded Knee, is over-violent and involves racism?  That’s horrible! Think of the children! It’s as though the trauma of massacre  has somehow been built into the narrative. Like attacking people of a certain skin or creed was part of the intent.

Don’t get me wrong, the conclusion that if someone allows themselves to be baptized it will completely absolve them of their past sins and responsibilities and make them racist bothered me.  It effectively says that baptism makes you racist and/or the natural state of the white man is to dominate and subjugate (a little pioneering manifest destiny there), and I just can’t get behind that. I was raised Catholic, and though I haven’t been to church in years, the clean-slate baptism thing bothered me. Even the Born Agains I know don’t take forgiveness for their past sins as free reign to repeat them. Is Booker brain-damaged by partial drowning?  Maybe. Still. Over the top, and I’m not sure the religious connotations really affect the plot.

But aside from baptism making you crazy, let’s think about the very last bit.  Your daughter feels strongly enough about you not existing in some number of lighthouses that she talks you into suicide, thus killing herself.  Suicide by proxy. The world is a better place with neither of you in it.  Even though they show a “happy” world at the end where you are both in it, so, yea.

There are some things to like here, story-wise, but we entered M. Night. Shyamalan territory when Elizabeth starts joining in the killing. Twist for the sake of a twist.

There’s enough quasi-symbolism and metaphor to make people think that this game is much more Important than it is.  But as Booker and Elizabeth learn, everyone makes their own story from their own experiences and their own books, so that’s not all bad. Is this game more nourishing than your average game?  It certainly gave us its conception of massacre. And that’s not nothing.