Wow. Dig the carnage there. Did anyone other than Travis Hair at Five For Howling have Phoenix in five? Holy shit.

Also, with Washington’s loss last night, I think Gerard has all but mathematically been eliminated from contention: the best he can finish is 8-7 now, whereas the worst Matt and I can finish is 8-7. So basically, unless he nails all three remaining series and we biff all three remaining series, he’s done. So now it’s down to the two of us and the returning champion, who needs to get us his picks, incidentally.

Okay, that’s a lie, he’s toast. I just didn’t want to spoil the picks before the cut. Everyone picked the same again; he’s fucked.

Clarence Campbell Conference Finals

(3) Phoenix vs. (8) Los Angeles

Playoff History: Back in the ’80s, the Kings and Jets never met in the divisional playoffs. Since the divisional format ended in 1993, the Kings had advanced past the first round just once, and the Jets/Coyotes never did, prior to this year. Not many opportunities to meet in the playoffs.

Season Series: Tied at three. LA and Phoenix each won one in extra time, and Phoenix added another in the shootout.

Doogie Says: After basing all my picks on goaltending last round, a stat I saw in Twitter today indicated that the best and worst goalies in this round are separated by 0.003 EVSV%, which means I’m actually going to have to put some effort in this time and talk about team strengths. To that end, LA kind of ran St. Loo’s show last round, finally getting the offensive contributions expected from guys like Dustin Penner at last while maintaining the defensive style that got them this far. Jeff Carter, though, has barely been able to buy a goal, and I think he’s due for a breakout at some point. Phoenix hasn’t gotten much scoring, but what they have gotten is a bit more balanced, including eleven points combined from Ray Whitney and Daymond Langkow, but regular-season scoring leader Radim Vrbata is also struggling to get it done, with just two goals and four points in eleven games. I didn’t get a chance to see much of the second round – it didn’t really last long enough – but it certainly looks like Phoenix’s series was much closer than the first, though Nashville is a team that plays a similar style, so maybe it’s not a huge surprise. Anything is possible at this point, but I just feel like LA should have the balance of power in this series, based on who they beat and how, compared to Phoenix. Let’s go with Kings in six.

Hoop Says:

Matt Says: Kings in five. See earlier statement about who I thought would be playing for the Cup.

Gerard Says: Kings in six. Why? Because Fuck Vancouver. That’s why. [Ed: I like that "Fuck Vancouver" is now a proper noun.]

	2	0			0
	4	4			2

Prince of Wales Conference Finals

(1) NY Rangers vs. (6) New Jersey

Playoff History: Another familiar matchup, their most famous meeting coming in 1994, and their most recent featuring the (thoroughly unnecessary) birth of the Sean Avery Rule.

1992 DSF	1994 CF	1997 CSF	2006 CQF	2008 CQF
4-3	4-3	4-1	4-0	4-1

Season Series: Tied at three, with one of the Devils’ wins coming in the coin-flip.

Doogie Says: To me, this series comes down to two questions.

1) Which Devils team are we getting? The one that required a rookie mistake in double overtime of Game 7 to dispose of the postseason’s worst team? Or the one that shut down the high-flying Flyers and made Ilya Bryzgalov look silly (sillier)? Ilya Kovalchuk has played like a man possessed, and with all due respect to Alex Ovechkin, looks like the guy most likely to make the Rangers’ six-goalie system look bad. On the other hand, Marty Brodeur has been consistently inconsistent this playoff, looking more like Fatso against Florida, and more like vintage Marty against Philly.

2) How tired is New York going to be? They’ve played two stifling seven-gamers without a break, including the longest game in a couple of years, and blocked a ton of shots. At some point, that style of play could catch up to them, either now or in the Cup finals. My sense is that, given the goaltending advantage, shot-blocking prowess, and the superior record against playoff teams, the Rangers will probably get through, but the Devils will give them everything they can handle, probably enough to screw their cross-Hudson rivals out of a Stanley Cup. Rangers in seven.

Hoop Says:

Matt Says: I honestly haven’t followed much of the second round to see how they’ve been playing, so using Doogie’s coin-flip method, I get HHTHTTH, and that obviously means Rangers in seven…oh, I was supposed to assign a team first? [Ed: I treat heads as the higher seed, so this is consistent with my own use last round.]

Gerard Says: Rangers in seven. It should be a good, local series, and that’s always fun. But the Devils took out Breezy while the Rangers got stuck against the biggest goalie surprise of the playoffs. Fatigue could be an issue, and I can’t imagine either of these teams winning the Cup, but I have to go with Lundqvist over Brodeur.

	3	2				1
	0	3				1

At last, the proper post, complete with all the carnage from round one. The Rangers and Devils really saved our bacon there last night, didn’t they?

A historic note I neglected to make last post was that not only did St. Louis and Phoenix win their first playoff series in over a decade (in Phoenix’s case, 25 years), but so, too, did the LA Kings: their last playoff series win was a 2001 upset of the Detroit Red Wings. In fact, this was just their second playoff series win since their 1993 run to the Stanley Cup Finals. So hooray for a bunch of history being made this year. Too bad that campaign was cancelled in favour of “Because It’s The Cup.”

[Ed: No, Matt still hasn't posted his picks yet. Hurry up, jackass. UPDATE: And he finally did, the day after.]

Clarence Campbell Conference Semifinals

(2) St. Louis vs. (8) Los Angeles

Playoff History: Fun fact: the St. Louis Blues have never lost a playoff game to the Los Angeles Kings. Sure, it’s spread across two eras with no players in common, either with each other or now, but hey, isn’t that neat?

1969 SF	1998 CQF
4-0	4-0

Season Series: 3-1 LA. They blitzed the Davis Payne Blues in the first meeting, while the games involving the Ken Hitchcock Blues were tight affairs: two were one-goal regulation wins, and one was a 1-0 SO loss.

Doogie Says: I could write up a bunch of boring reasons why one team or the other will win, but after joking about it on Twitter, I decided that literally flipping a coin would be more fun, anyway, because that’s probably the best model for how this series between two dominant puck possession teams with outstanding goaltending is going to go anyway.

Flip 1: Heads
Flip 2: Heads
Flip 3: Tails
Flip 4: Heads
Flip 5: Tails
Flip 6: Tails
Flip 7: Tails

Kings in seven. Because apparently, tails is fuckin’ clutch.

Hoop Says: Prediction #1: every game will be a 2-1 game. These teams are really clones of one another. I just smell some magic in Los Angeles, and I’ll take Jonathan Quick over either St. Louis goaltender. It’ll be a war, but I’m taking the Kings in seven.

Matt Says: Kings in six. I really have no good reason (do I ever?), but when the playoffs started, I thought Kings/Flyers for the Cup.

Gerard Says: Kings in six. Why? Because fuck Vancouver, that’s why. (No, that’s not a mistake. I know they’re playing St. Louis. That’s still my reason.)

	1	2	2	1	0
	3	5	4	3	4

(3) Phoenix vs. (4) Nashville

Playoff History: Unsurprisingly, these two teams have never met in the postseason.

Season Series: Tied at two, with one of Nashville’s wins coming in the coin-flip.

Doogie Says: Two teams that got blitzed in the first round and survived thanks to ungodly goaltending, Phoenix slightly more so. The simple question is, which one is more likely to sustain? The quick, only-kinda-supported answer: Rinne has a longer and more consistent track record of success (remember, Mike Smith wasn’t good enough some uninspiring Tampa Bay Lightning teams), and Nashville’s deadline pickups seem more likely to solve Phoenix’s keeper than vice versa. Either way, congrats to fans in the desert, who will finally learn what it’s like to watch a hockey game you care about in May, and congrats to fans of whichever team ultimately advances for making their deepest-ever playoff run, because that’s as far as they’re getting: the winner of this series is going to get slobberknockered by whomever comes out of St. Louis-LA. Book it. Predators in six.

Hoop Says: Good seats are still available for Game 1 in Phoenix! (No, I’m not kidding.) This has to be a nightmare for the NHL in regards to TV ratings. Mike Smith is on one of those scary goalie runs that you see from time to time, however Nashville is a complete team. I’ll go with Rinne, Suter, and Weber: Predators in four. After that, pack the Mayflower trucks and see you in Quebec City next year!

Matt Says: Predators in five. I’m pretty sure the Coyotes can pull off at least one win…

Gerard Says: Predators in seven. You have a team that has great goaltending but no offense. No, wait, two teams. Fuck it. Coinflip.

	4	5	0	1	2	4
	3	3	2	0	1	1

Prince of Wales Conference Semifinals

(1) NY Rangers vs. (7) Washington

Playoff History: My, this matchup looks familiar.

1986 DF	1990 DF	1991 DSF	1994 CSF	2009 CQF	2011 CQF
4-2	4-1	4-2	4-1	4-3	4-1

The Caps have won both recent matchups, and four of the six all-time.

Season Series: Tied at two. Fun fact: only one game (3-2 NYR, 2/12/12) was decided by fewer than three goals.

Doogie Says: Not unlike my pick in the Phoenix-Nashville series, I think in a battle between a hot goalie and a good goalie, I’ll pick the good goalie every time. Braden Holtby is a great story, and it’d be fun to see him pull at least a Halak or a Penney, if not a Roy or a Dryden. I know I tend to be focusing on goaltending in this round to the exclusion of much else, but it was a definite theme of the first round (along with gratuitous violence) that the team with the hot goalie, moreso than usual, carried the day: of the eight survivors, only St. Louis and New Jersey had the majority of even-strength, score-tied shot attempts in their series, so this is kind of what I have to work with. Besides, with Dale Hunter benching Alex Ovechkin with regularity these days, and Semin apparently being Semin in the playoffs, it doesn’t seem like the Caps’ scorers are going to have as much to say about things as I’d really like them to. But hey, that makes my job easier, in terms of bullshitting reasons to make mostly arbitrary decisions: it took noted goal machine Joel Ward to get the Caps to this point in the first place. Holtby will hold the Caps in longer than they have any right to, but I think we can count on the perennial Vezina candidate to make a save when he has to; he usually does. Rangers in seven.

Hoop Says: Holtby outduelling King Henrik? Ummm…no. This is a good matchup for the Rangers, but it won’t be too easy. Let’s go with the Rangers in six.

Matt Says: Rangers in seven. I didn’t expect Washington to get past the first round, so I still don’t expect them to get past the second.

Gerard Says: Capitals in five. Apparently they have a goaltender now.

	3	2	2	2	3	1	2	4
	1	3	1	3	2	2	1	3

(5) Philadelphia vs. (6) New Jersey

Playoff History: The two teams met as recently as a couple of years ago, with the Flyers carrying the day en route to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. Historically, the Flyers were also the first-ever post-season opponent of the then-Colorado Rockies. Unsurprisingly, the Rockies got stomped.

1978 PRE	1995 CF	2000 CF	2004 CQF	2010 CQF
2-0	4-2	4-3	4-1	4-1

Season Series: Tied at three, with one of Jersey’s wins coming in the shootout.

Doogie Says: Ah, finally a break from hot goalies in favour of two goalies who actually kind of sucked in the first round. Okay, at least Brodeur had that double OT and shutout to hang his hat on, while Bryzgalov played like the reincarnation of Andre Racicot for most of his series, but bear in mind, Florida is fucking terrible; that they had half a chance in that series despite getting blown out on the shot clock says as many bad things about Marty (especially with some of the goals he gave up) as it does good things about Theo/Clemmensen. Philly has the guns to overcome bad goaltending in a long series, whereas New Jersey feels decidedly less strong beyond that Zajac-Parise-Kovalchuk top grouping. (Though hey, how about that Adam Henrique kid?) I don’t think it’s going to be the blowout some of my colleagues are picking, simply because I expect Bryzgalov to turn on the Racicot in at least a couple of games, but give it to the Flyers in six despite that.

Hoop Says: New Jersey goes to OT in Game 7 to beat Florida. Philly takes out Pittsburgh in five [Ed: Six.] despite Bryzgalov not being able to stop a beach ball. Normally, I like to pick the goaltender I trust more, but Jersey and Florida are both bad teams. Philly and Pittsburgh are good teams. Easy pick for me: Flyers in five.

Matt Says: Flyers in five. Like Gerard is about to say, this one doesn’t really need any discussion; also, see pick one.

Gerard Says: Flyers in four. Seriously, are we discussing this one?

	4	1	3	2	1	1
	3	4	4	4	3	4

Also note that I’ll probably be relying on fancystats way more this year, just because I’ve had less than zero time to watch teams play, for the most part. I’m grumpy about it, but I’m hoping I can make up for it in the later rounds. [Ed: And I think after citing the fancystats I've ignored them in at least half of the predictions. Oh well.]

Clarence Campbell Conference Quarterfinals

(1) Vancouver vs. (8) Los Angeles

Playoff History: The only recent playoff series went to the Canucks, but back in the days of the Smythe Division, Gretzky’s Kings had the upper hand.

1982 DF	1991 DSF	1993 DF	2010 CQF
4-1	4-2	4-2	4-2

Previously On…Survivor: The Canucks went to Game 7 of the Finals before losing to the Bruins. LA, meanwhile, was ousted in the first round on an OT goal by the clutchest man in hockey…Joe Thornton? Really? Wait, lemme see that.

Season Series: Even at two, with one of LA’s wins coming in the coin-flip.

Doogie Says: This should be a much closer series than you’d really expect for a 1-8; a lot of the even strength fancystats are either a wash or favour LA, strangely enough (their Fenwick Close is 2% better than Vancouver, and since the deadline, it’s #1 with a bullet), while Vancouver owns far and away the better power play. Goaltending will be a factor as always, with all three of Quick, Schneider, and Luongo finishing with similar EV SV% numbers: any one of those three could steal a game and turn the series. (Quick and Luongo also both have histories of…inconsistent play in the postseason.) That being said, I think the deciding factor is going to be the fact that I still don’t trust the Kings to be able to put the puck in the ocean with any consistency, Carter be damned. Speaking of, looks like Carter will be back for Game 1 tonight, while Daniel Sedin will not; keep an eye on that to be a thing as this series goes long and becomes ever-tighter. Similarly, the depth players in this series could prove difference-makers in at least one or two games, and in that instance, I’d give the nod to Vancouver. Holding my nose, crossing my fingers, going with Canucks in seven. (Aside: Canucks fans can’t even agree on this one.)

Hoop Says: Kings in seven.

Matt Says: Kings in six. Unless something out of the ordinary happens, it’s a question of when Vancouver will choke. Let’s go with right off the bat.

Gerard Says: Kings in six. Why? Because fuck Vancouver. That’s why. [Ed: He's consistent. This is at least the seventh consecutive series he's picked against Vancouver going back to 2010, with a 2-4 record in those series. I'd check earlier, but those archives only exist on Gerard's computer, and I'm not going to harrass him for it at this point.]

	2	2	0	3	1	1
	4	4	1	1	2	4

(2) St. Louis vs. (7) San Jose

Playoff History: More than I thought there’d be, to be honest. They met three times in the first half of last decade, with the Sharks somehow getting the upper hand in two of them. I mean, seriously, what the hell happened in 2000, St. Louis? You were 27 points and 72 goals better than them!

2000 CQF	2001 CQF	2004 CQF
4-3	4-2	4-1

Previously On…Survivor: St. Louis haven’t made the playoffs since 2009, when they got bounced by the Canucks in four straight, and haven’t won a playoff series since 2002. The Sharks made the conference finals for the second consecutive year, this time losing to Vancouver in five.

Season Series: St. Louis spanked San Jose, taking all four games in regulation.

Doogie Says: St. Loo owns San Jose (and indeed, most of the NHL) by most metrics out there, traditional and fancystats. Standings points, goal differential, Fenwick Close/Tied, even strength save percentage, shot prevention (even strength and PK)… all of them are in the upper echelon, many of them in the top one to three. San Jose can, however, still boast at least a few more goals for (18 over 82 games), better shot creation (even strength and PP), and a better top end offence (Joe Thornton had 23 points more than David Backes and T.J. Oshie, the two teams’ respective scoring leaders). Yes, Brian Elliott – who set the modern NHL record for GAA (1.56) and SV% (.940) – is now out with an upper body injury, but Jaro Halak (1.97/.926, .938 EV SV% compared to Elliott’s .945) was no slouch, either. And even if the otherworldly goaltending from both ‘keepers regresses (or Jake Allen somehow winds up in net), the Blues are still a balls-out good team at controlling the play: they play a hard, physical game while minding their responsibilities in the way Hitchcock teams always have. They’re not a lock for the Stanley Cup or anything, but San Jose is aging, relying on their backup after their Stanley Cup champion goalie couldn’t get the job done, and less deep up front than they’ve been in the past. Also, as a reminder: the Blues dismantled the Sharks in the regular season. This, and Devils-Panthers, seem like the two no-brainers here, but then I’ve been wrong on stuff like this before (see: MTL-WAS/PIT, 2010). Blues in four.

Hoop Says: Blues in six.

Matt Says: Blues in four. Can San Jose go anywhere this post-season? What am I thinking? Let’s go with a repeat of the season series.

Gerard Says: Sharks in four. St. Louis swept the season series. Symmetry.

	2	3	4	2	3	4
	3	0	3	1	1	1

(3) Phoenix vs. (6) Chicago

Playoff History: Bupkis. The Jets and Hawks were in separate divisions for most of the ’80s, and were never decent at the same time in the ’90s or ’00s. In fact, they frequently missed the playoffs together during the interlockout period.

Previously On…Survivor: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Coyotes lost to the Red Wings in the first round, and Chicago played Vancouver last year. The difference being, Chicago was an OT giveaway by Chris Campoli away from overcoming an 0-3 deficit, but ultimately bowed out in seven in round one. This is also your annual reminder that the Jets/Coyotes franchise has not won a playoff series since 1987.

Season Series: The Coyotes took three of four, two of them in regulation.

Doogie Says: The problem with trying to use fancystats to call a playoff series is that they’re not, in my view, as cut and dried as is sometimes suggested, and this series is the A-1 example of this. Chicago has better possession numbers, but they’ve had Godawful goaltending (though granted, a bunch of that is on Ray Emery, who’s been AHL-quality), while Phoenix has had mediocre possession but excellent goaltending. So call that a wash. Special teams? Both have awful PK by shot metrics, Phoenix is also terrible on the PP, but Chicago is at least mediocre there. Okay, now we’re getting somewhere. But then you look at the one-goal-game records, and Phoenix’s is wickedly low, suggesting that they may be undervalued a bit in the standings, while Chicago’s is pretty consistent with their 2+-goal-game record. And then I throw up my hands and say fuck it, I’m going with my gut here.

It goes something like this. Phoenix nearly beat Detroit in 2010 despite missing Shane Doan for half the series, and probably would’ve been a lot closer in 2011 if not for Bryz going all flaketastic over the parks in Vinny Peg and what-not. Chicago isn’t as deep as they were two years ago, nor as deep as any Detroit team in recent memory. The Hawks are loaded with injuries, most notably captain Toews, and while he may be back for Game 1, there’s no guarantee that a) it happens, and b) he’s 100%. Plus, the Phoenix organization and its fans really deserve at least one bit of success before they’re forced to pack it in, especially with smart stuff like that Vermette trade on their resume. So, for the second year in a row, I’m gonna stick my neck out here and pick the Coyotes in seven. Don’t let me down again here, guys.

Hoop Says: Blackhawks in six.

Matt Says: Blackhawks in five. Knowing that one team looked good in the middle and the other seemed better than they should be leaves one with a tough choice…

Gerard Says: Blackhawks in seven. Let’s be clear. Nobody will win this. It’s a matter of who loses. Who will fail harder? Chicago’s goaltending or Phoenix’s offense?

	3	3	3	3	1	4	4
	2	4	2	2	2	0	2

(4) Nashville vs. (5) Detroit

Playoff History: For some reason, I thought the Preds and Wings had played more than twice, but apparently not. Well, naturally, both series were reasonably recent, and both went in Detroit’s favour.

2004 CQF	2008 CQF
4-2	4-2

Previously On…Survivor: The Preds won their first-ever playoff series against the woefully overmatched Ducks (everyone not named Matt saw that one coming a mile away) before losing to Vancouver in six the next round. Detroit beat Phoenix (again) before losing to San Jose (again) in seven in round two; like Chicago, however, they almost pulled off the 0-3 comeback.

Season Series: Tied at three. Both teams went 2-1 at home, all games were in regulation.

Doogie Says: If this matchup were happening a month ago, it’d be Preds in five and that’s the end of it. Detroit’s started to get healthy again, though, and that should make this a more interesting series. Still, there’s something I just don’t understand: what the ever-loving fuck is with the Wings’ road record? Seriously, their home-road delta is the sort of thing I’d expect from a crap team like Winnipeg or Edmonton, teams with a lot of guys who need matchup help in order to have success. Is it injuries? Age? Depth? Luck? My conversations with Wings fans and perusal of the numbers suggests that it’s a little bit of everything. Whatever the case, it’s something that I imagine most of the hockey world is leaning on in picking Nashville to win this thing. The full-season fancystats laugh at this horrendously, but then the Preds, more than any other team, have heavily remade their roster in the last two months, adding Hal Gill, Andrei Kostitsyn, Paul Gaustad, and prodigal son Alexander Radulov in a go-for-broke effort to bring a Stanley Cup to Music City. And you know, it may just be working: there’s been a definite uptick in their possession, and as Habs blogger Bruce Peter noted, they’ve been particularly good since Radulov arrived in particular. Small samples and all, but it’s promising. More to the point, I’ve been quietly pulling for the Predators for a while, and I’m probably going to be putting all my eggs in their basket for this playoff run. In the absence of any more compelling reason to do so, that may be my ultimate reason for calling it a homer series. Predators in seven.

Hoop Says: Predators in seven.

Matt Says: Predators in six. Safely agreeing with Gerard when he says who knows? Is the third time the charm for Nashville?

Gerard Says: Predators in six. Coinflip. Let’s be honest, nobody has any idea how this will go.

	3	2	3	3	2	4
	2	3	2	1	1	1

Prince of Wales Conference Quarterfinals

(1) NY Rangers vs. (8) Ottawa

Playoff History: In the modern era, none. However, because Ottawa made the critical mistake of claiming continuity with the original franchise back in ’92, I get to pull dumb shit like this:

1930 QF
6-3*

* – Denotes two-game, total-goals series.

Suck on it, Sens fans. This is what your franchise’s early-period salesmanship hath wrought.

Previously On…Survivor: The Rangers bowed out to Washington in five. The Sens were Goddamned terrible last year, and also were the year before, but in 2010, they made the playoffs, anyway, and won the right to get punted by Pittsburgh in five.

Season Series: Surprisingly, Ottawa won it 3-1, all in regulation.

Doogie Says: As Gerard will note in just a couple of paragraphs here, at a certain point, you just gotta stop the puck. While Vezina favourite Henrik Lundqvist has regressed like a boss recently, he’s still one of the elite goaltenders in the NHL, and while Craig Anderson et al. have shown some capacity for getting hot, there’s no good reason to bet on them in a seven-game series. I’m not terribly familiar with the East this year, because Montreal decided they were going to miss the playoffs at Christmas, but I am interested to note that Jason Spezza finished fourth in the NHL in scoring; granted, he’s 25 points back of Evgeni Malkin, but he’s still at the top of that heap of point-per-game-ish players, which is kind of impressive. More impressive, though, is Erik Karlsson putting up 78 points, the highest total for a D since Nicklas Lidstrom put up 80 in the PP-fueled 2005-06 season. However, after those two, things drop off in a hurry, with only three players with more than 40 points on the year, which really doesn’t put them in a much better position than the Rangers, who have the same number of 40-point players, led by 40-goal man Marian Gaborik. Ottawa has the slight advantage by even-strength shot metrics (though I’m told if you toss the Rangers’ first ten games, they’re way better), but it’s worth noting that they’re a way higher-event team in both directions, which is probably not a good thing when dealing with a #1 seed that prides itself on defence and good goaltending; I think they’re going to get burned here trying to run and gun. They’ll make it interesting, but I’ll go with the Rangers in five.

Hoop Says: Rangers in six.

Matt Says: Rangers in six. Very interesting. Will this be a high scoring or low scoring series?

Gerard Says: Rangers in five. At some point, a team needs to stop pucks.

	4	2	1	2	0	3		3
	2	3	0	3	2	2		3

(2) Boston vs. (7) Washington

Playoff History: Nothing recent. Just a couple of series on the opposite ends of the ’90s.

1990 CF	1998 CQF
4-0	4-2

Previously On…Survivor: The Bruins are the defending Stanley Cup champions. Washington disposed of the Rangers in round one, before being stunned by the Bolts in four straight.

Season Series: As with the Rangers and Sens, this one actually belongs to the underdog, again by a 3-1 count, with one of Washington’s three victories coming after sixty.

Doogie Says: Years from now, the 2011-12 Capitals will be a case study in when not to fire a coach. They had one of the best even-strength possession ratings in the NHL in late November when Bruce Boudreau was fired (53%), but just Godawful goaltending (a hair above .900). That’s not when you fire your coach: if anything, that’s when you call up the AHL guy to make a point to your two alleged NHL goalies to get their shit together. The goaltending eventually recovered, but the Caps’ even-strength play took a nosedive, and they finished the year dead in the middle of the NHL in both points and Fenwick Close, barely making the playoffs, as Dale Hunter uses such cutting-edge evaluation techniques as “plus-minus” to decide on his scratches. Sure, the Bruins have had their ups and downs, and having Nathan Horton become the new Marc Savard is really going to hurt them in later rounds, but when you consider that Washington has both NHL goalies hurt going into the playoffs, Nick Backstrom recently back from missing half a year with a concussion, and Mike Green wrapping up a lost season spent mostly on the IR, they’re straight-up boned here. Give it to the Bruins in five.

Hoop Says: Bruins in five.

Matt Says: Bruins in five. A team like Boston should be able to grind out enough goals to win.

Gerard Says: Bruins in five. At some point, a team needs to stop pucks.

	1	1	4	1	3	4	1	3
	0	2	3	2	4	3	2	4

(3) Florida vs. (6) New Jersey

Playoff History: I’d remark on how this isn’t recent and what-not, but considering this is also the last playoff series the Panthers played? Yeeeeah.

2000 CQF
4-0

Previously On…Survivor: As previously noted, the Panthers haven’t made the playoffs since 2000, when the Devils disposed of them in four straight. Their last playoff game victory came on April 17, 1997, a 3-0 decision in Game 1 of their first-round series against the Rangers. Jersey, for their part, missed the playoffs last season, lost in the first round in 2010, and haven’t won a series since 2007.

Season Series: Even at two, with one of the Devils’ wins coming in the coin-flip.

Doogie Says: The Panthers have a few historical marks on their hands this year, none of them worthy of pride: most OT losses in NHL history, worst GD of a division champion in over 30 years (1979 CHI), first negative GD division champion in over 20 years (1989 DET), worst GD of any playoff team in 15 years (1997 MTL), worst fancystats of a playoff team in the fancystats era (2007 TBL). What I’m saying here is, Florida has no business having home ice: they should be closer to the draft lottery. The Devils, meanwhile, held their own in an incredibly tough division, despite Martin Brodeur no longer playing like Martin Brodeur (.908 SV%, second straight below-average year), and despite Travis Zajac missing most of the season due to injury. Part of that’s due to shootout wins, yes (NHL-leading 11), and that’ll bode poorly for them in later rounds, but I just look at the rosters and the stats, and I can’t see any way that Florida comes out on top, unless Scott Clemmensen is the new Dwayne Roloson or something. This is easily the least interesting matchup of round one, and seems the least likely to be a real series. Still, the Panthers did manage to wring two regulation wins out of Jersey, so maybe it won’t be a complete shitshow. Ah, what the hell: Devils in five.

Hoop Says: Devils in five.

Matt Says: Devils in six. No real idea here, but I’m going with New Jersey.

Gerard Says: Devils in four. Florida would have missed the playoffs if not for its lossless streak against the NW. They won 2 games, and the only one in regulation was the Canucks.

	2	4	4	0	3	2		3
	3	2	3	4	0	3		3

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia

Playoff History: Ah, here’s one we’re all familiar with. An old Patrick Division grudge match with multiple recent editions to stoke the fires.

1989 DF	1997 CQF	2000 CSF	2008 CF	2009 CQF
4-3	4-1	4-2	4-1	4-2

Previously On…Survivor: The Pens were upset in round one by the Lightning, hocking up a 3-1 lead to lose in seven. The Flyers overcame the Sabres in seven before going out meekly in four against the eventual champions from Boston. (It is also worth noting here that the Flyers, the team swept by the Bruins, are back, while Montreal and Tampa, who pushed the Bruins to seven, are out. Wacky.)

Season Series: The Flyers won it 4-2, and finally suffered their first defeat at the Consol Energy Center in the final game of the regular season.

Doogie Says: It should be the most obvious thing in the world. The Penguins are the best team in the NHL, full stop. They were dominant for most of the year with multiple good players, including that Crosby guy, out of action with various maladies. They should run through the East like a chainsaw on a rocket. And yet I’m not convinced that they’ll get past the first round, simply because the Flyers match up against them very well. I always seem to turn these games on in the final five minutes, with the decision already settled, so I can’t tell you what it is, but the fact that it took six tries for the Pens to beat the Flyers in their own damned building for the first time is telling. Is it really the ribs? Has that spell been broken? Which collection of cheap-shot artists and agitating pricks will drive the other off their game first? The season series suggests Philly has the upper hand in that kind of series, and I have no reason to think it’s not going to be that kind of series. Not that both these teams can’t also play a brilliantly skilled game, just that this is too intense of a rivalry not to expect a lot of shenanigans. It’s going to come down to the last game, possibly the very last shot, but give it to the Flyers in seven.

Hoop Says: Penguins in seven.

Matt Says: Flyers in six. So we can’t leave their top two without something to whine about all summer…

Gerard Says: Pittsburgh in six. If either teams gets out of this series without its top three players injured, it’ll be a miracle.

	3	5	4	10	3	1	2
	4	8	8	3	2	5	4

I’m not gonna lie, I totally thought this thing was tomorrow. Not that I’m entirely sure I’d have something written by then, since I kind of have a 20-page proposal due a week from Tuesday, and a five-page stats assignment and five-minute presentation for this Tuesday to do before then. So, the summary of last game: better start, terrible late first/early second, got our shit together as the second went on, Brandon melted down, 4-0 final, and I’m a dick for not bringing a hat for Trevor Cheek.

It goes without saying that the Hitmen need two of three in Winnipeg. Let’s hope the Wheaties keep trying to goon it up and take penalties, because whatever failings the Hitmen have on the PP, the Wheaties similarly have on the PK, and so far, that matchup’s worked out in our favour so far. Game’s at 4, go watch it on WHL.ca PPV, and go Hitmen.

That could’ve gone better.

I was tempted to write a smart-assed tweet before the opening draw that, because of all the nice things I’d said about the Hitmen defence, they’d get outshot 40-20 and lose horribly just to spite me. I wasn’t quite on the mark – the Hitmen actually outshot Brandon 36-32 – but the “lose horribly” part was well in evidence, as Calgary dropped Game 1 by a mostly-earned 6-2 count.

The thing I really want to highlight here is just how terribly the defence played. To a man, they were blowing coverage, making blatant unforced errors (the two giveaways that led to the third and fourth goals), and generally running around like rookies. It was a highly disappointing and uncharacteristic performance that really left goalie Chris Driedger without much recourse. No, that second goal shouldn’t have counted, and yes, he might like one or two of those back ideally, but none of the goals were egregious sieve jobs as I’ve seen on some evenings. Driedger didn’t have a fantastic game, but I can’t fairly blame him for this loss. It’s the guys in front of him who didn’t do enough, and the Hitmen are going to need a much better and smarter effort from the D and from the leadership of the team (as you’ll see below, Jimmy Bubnick had a night to forget) if they want to avoid carrying an 0-2 millstone around their necks for the long bus ride to Manitoba.

The other thing that caught my attention was that Alex Roach dressed as a forward last night. I assume the Hitmen are short bodies, because Roach played in the bottom six, predominantly with Chase Clayton and #1 bantam pick Jake Virtanen. Roach acquitted himself well enough, though there were a few plays where he looked a little uncomfortable with the weird positioning. It’s not the first time head coach Mike Williamson has moved someone from their normal spot: captain Cody Sylvester took a few turns on D in the early season while the roster was getting sorted out.

The game started well enough with some early pressure, and Bubnick – acting captain in the Sylvester’s absence – laid a hellacious hit to set the tone. Unfortunately, that tone set him back two minutes when, after the play, he was goaded into suckering a Brandon player during the line change. Calgary killed that one off, but the Wheaties sustained pressure, and were rewarded a couple of minutes later with the opening score by Jason Swyripa off a goal-mouth scramble. Initially, it looked like goalie interference from our angle, but the replay showed that Driedger was going to come up short regardless.

About a minute later, though, the Wheaties got another one, credited to Darian Dziurzynski, off a play that frankly shouldn’t have counted. Driedger had the puck corralled, but was knocked into the net and the puck came loose. It was the second time in three games that such a play had resulted in a goal against, and the call was so egregiously bad, even my mom booed. And she never boos anything.

Bubnick’s bad period continued with less than five to go, as he took a second undisciplined call, this time for charging. Nothing came of that penalty, either, fortunately, and with less than two minutes to go, Calgary finally got on the board on a beauty snipe by Brooks Macek that popped the water bottle from the far circle. The period ended 2-1 Brandon.

The second started much as the first ended, with an early Hitmen power play terminated by a goal. Once again, it was Brooks Macek who made it happen, as he patiently waited for a seam to open in the Wheat Kings’ formation, then fed Alex Gogolev for the one-timer. Tie game.

From there, the second settled into a bit of a rhythm, but while Calgary evened up the shots, it never felt like they really controlled the play. Bubnick had a couple of good opportunities to redeem his earlier errors not long after the second goal, but they fell short. Finally, with about four minutes to go, the deadlock was broken. Mark Stone got a breakaway, but Collin Bowman showed great wheels in catching him and picking his pocket. Unfortunately, he passed the puck right to Michael Ferland, who fed Stone at the side of the net to make it 3-2 Brandon, which is how the period ended.

In the third, everything went to hell for Calgary. First, an errant breakout pass went right onto the tape of Stone, who found a streaking Ferland for the outstanding tip in front of the net to take a 4-2 lead. I had no sooner tweeted my amazement/disgust when Dziurzynski had scored again to make it 5-2. Some meager attempts at shenanigans followed, but nothing really came of it. Alessio Bertaggia, whom I’ve literally never heard of before now, finished the scoring with a top-shelf wrister from the half-boards while two defenders stood around picking their noses at the side of the net. And there’s your 6-2 final.

Conventional hockey wisdom suggests that, in the playoffs, a team tends to respond much more strongly to getting their asses kicked than they do to suffering a narrow loss, because they make more of an effort to correct flaws in their game. Like a lot of conventional hockey wisdom, I’m sure it’s somewhat less universal than it would appear, but I’m sincerely hoping it holds tonight. If not, it may be an uncharacteristically short spring for a franchise that, since its first appearance in 1998, has averaged 7.4 playoff wins per year, according to @WHLFacts.

* – Denotes single-game result in Memorial Cup competition.

That last one still hurts my soul every time I think about it. Sigh.

Okay, I’ve been driving myself nuts over this during the few spare minutes I’ve had to think about it over the last few days. So we’ve got Calgary finishing 44-25-3 and +52, versus Brandon finishing 39-28-5 and +16. After a streaky first half, Calgary came on strong with a post-holiday record of 27-10-0 – one of the biggest second-half improvements in the WHL – headlined by a 15-2-0 run during January and February. On the one hand, that’s great cause for optimism, because yay we kicked ass, but then I’ve also learned to be leery of teams that push themselves from the bubble to home ice on the strength of one long run of nigh-unabated success. Take away the one long run, and you’re left with 12-8-0 for the rest of the second half (though granted, there’s also a 1-5-0 run in there; like I said, streaky), and 29-23-3 all told, which prorates to eighth in the East, about where I figured they’d be at the start of the year. Obviously, that’s not how stuff like this really works, but it’s definitely concerning.

I promised myself I’d never try to do advanced stats on the WHL, and that I’d just enjoy the game, but there are some things that have just confused me with this team that I’m trying to understand. Like their first-half tendency to get into lopsided games, both for and against; the world may never understand that one. Or how both goalies have won goalie of the month this year, yet neither has a save percentage above .900 – for comparison’s sake, Brandon’s starter has the third-best SV% in the League at .916 – or how they managed to give up 36 fewer goals than the Wheaties despite all of this. That last one’s a lot easier: I did some quick math off the goalie-stats page and came up with the Hitmen surrendering just 27.1 SA/60, a ridiculously low shot volume, especially for mistake-riddled junior hockey. Again, to compare: regular-season champion Edmonton’s goalies faced 28.4 SA/60; the WHL’s stingiest team, Tri-City, gave up 29.4 SA/60. We don’t have many underlying numbers, but that seems like a really good one to have, especially when you consider that the Central Division was easily the toughest in the WHL this year. (I wish I could search @WHLFacts’ feed easily so I could find the tweet that had GD versus other divisions; I remember that the Central’s was a ridiculous plus, and the BC’s was a ridiculous minus.)

The Hitmen and Wheaties are tied for the 5^th-best GF total (273) in the WHL, with the teams ahead of them being Edmonton and the three good teams in the Norris West. However, the Hitmen have gotten it done a little more at even strength, with a power play efficiency ranked smack in the middle of the League at #12, while Brandon’s sat third overall. However, to balance that out, the Hitmen also have the fourth-best PK efficiency in the League, while Brandon was way down at #15. Rather strikingly, the Wheaties have more scoring from their top line (1.49 PPG average), while the Hitmen have theirs much more spread out (Jimmy Bubnick’s 1.07 PPG leads the team). And finally, we have the season series: 3-1 by games, 19-13 by goals, both to the Hitmen, with only one of those games decided by fewer than three goals. Make of that what you will.

So what does all that mean? Well, first off, I should probably relax a little: this was a team that I didn’t feel like was getting enough breaks early in the year, and they probably got too many late in the year, so maybe their record isn’t as entirely out of whack as it might first seem. They’re sound defensively, which makes life easier for their goalies, and they have a balanced offence that makes it harder to shut them down compared to Brandon. (The Yahoo! preview of this series pointed to the Brandon top line’s age and last-kick-at-the-can desire as a factor in predicting the upset, but one could easily turn that right around when talking about Jimmy Bubnick and captain Cody Sylvester, the only forwards left over from the 2010 championship team. Stone et al. are clearly better, but I’m not convinced it’s going to be the deciding factor.) The Wheaties will get their goals, make no mistake – Calgary’s goalies are highly streaky, and it seems all but certain that one of them is going to give up a fiver at some point – but I feel like on the whole, the Hitmen match up pretty well against them. It’ll be a tighter series than the standings suggest, but I’m confident the Hitmen will win in six games.

That is all.

• Games vs. VAN: 2 GP, 1-1-0, +6/-6, 6.00 GPG, no games with fewer than five total goals.
• All other games: 7 GP, 3-1-3, +10/-7, 2.43 GPG, no games with more than three total goals.

Khabibulin for Vezina.

10/9	10/13	10/15	10/17	10/18	10/20	10/22	10/25
1-1	1-1	3-4	2-1	1-2	1-1	2-0	3-2

If your answer was, “all the games not against Vancouver were bizarrely low-scoring,” give yourself five Internet points. In their two games, the Oilers and Canucks have combined for 12 goals, which is about average for the post-lockout NHL. In the other six games, the Oilers and their opponents have combined for just 14.

Usual caveats regarding sample size apply, of course, but I thought I’d point it out anyway.

The companion ex-Oilers post can be found here.

Player	Team	Acquired	Departed
Francois Beauchemin		Draft (3/75, ’98)	Waivers (CBJ, ’04)
Kyle Chipchura		Draft (1/18, ’04)	Trade (ANA, ’09): for 4/??? ’11
Dan Ellis		Trade (NSH, ’10): with D. Boyd for S. Kostitsyn	FA (TBL, ’10)
Saku Koivu		Draft (1/21, ’93)	FA (ANA, ’09)
Brett Festerling1		Trade (ANA, ’10): with 5/??? ’12 for M. Lapierre	Trade (ATL, ’11): for D. MacIntyre
Ron Hainsey		Draft (1/13, ’00)	Waivers (CBJ, ’05)
Mark Recchi		Trade (PHI, ’95): with 3/74 ’95 (M. Hohenberger) for E. Desjardins, G. Dionne, and J. LeClair	Trade (PHI, ’99): for D. Zubrus, 2/58 ’99 (M. Carkner) and 6/172 ’00 (S. Selig)
Michael Ryder		Draft (8/216, ’98)	FA (BOS, ’08)
Craig Conroy1		Draft (6/123, ’90)	Trade (STL, ’96): with P. Turgeon and R. Fitzpatrick for M. Baron, S. Corson, and 5/122 ’97 (G. Razin)
Tom Kostopoulos		FA (LAK, ’07)	FA (CAR, ’09)
Raitis Ivanans1		FA (AHL, ’04)	FA (LAK, ’06)
Alex Tanguay1		Trade (CGY, ’08): with 5/138 ’08 (M. Trunev) for 1/25 ’08 (G. Nemisz) and 2/49 ’09 (S. Elliott, COL)	FA (TBL, ’09)
Shawn Belle1		Trade (MIN, ’08): for C. Locke	FA (EDM, ’10)
Ryan O’Byrne		Draft (3/79, ’03)	Trade (COL, ’10): for M. Bournival
Mathieu Garon		Draft (2/44, ’96)	Trade (LAK, ’04): with 3/95 ’04 (P. Baier) for R. Bonk and C. Huet
Craig Rivet1		Draft (3/68, ’92)	Trade (SJS, ’07): with 5/146 ’08 (J. Demers) for J. Gorges and 1/22 ’07 (M. Pacioretty)
Mike Ribiero		Draft (2/45, ’98)	Trade (DAL, ’06): with 6/176 ’08 (M. Tassone) for J. Niinimaa and 5/142 ’07 (A. Conboy)
Stephane Robidas		Draft (7/164, ’95)	Waivers (ATL, ’02)
Doug Janik1		Trade (DAL, ’09): for S. Begin	FA (DET, ’09)
Sheldon Souray1		Trade (NJD, ’00): with J. DeWolf and 2/61 ’01 (A. Holmqvist, TBL) for V. Malakhov	FA (EDM, ’07)
Sergei Samsonov		FA (EDM, ’06)	Trade (CHI, ’07): for J. Cullimore and T. Salmelainen
Tomas Vokoun		Draft (9/226, ’94)	Expansion Draft (NSH, ’98)
Guillaume Latendresse		Draft (2/45, ’05)	Trade (MIN, ’09): for B. Pouliot
Jose Theodore		Draft (2/44, ’94)	Trade (COL, ’06): for D. Aebischer
Paul Mara		FA (NYR, ’09)	FA (ANA, ’10)
Steve Begin1		Waivers (BUF, ’03)	Trade (DAL, ’09): for D. Janik
Francis Bouillon1		FA (IHL, ’98)	Waivers (NSH, ’02)
		Waivers (NSH, ’02)	FA (NSH, ’09)
Sergei Kostitsyn		Draft (7/200, ’05)	Trade (NSH, ’10): for D. Boyd, D. Ellis
Dainius Zubrus		Trade (PHI, ’99): with 2/58 ’99 (M. Carkner) and 6/172 ’00 (S. Selig) for M. Recchi	Trade (WSH, ’01): with T. Linden and 2/61 ’01 (A. Holmqvist, TBL) for R. Zednik, J. Bulis, and 1/25 ’01 (A. Perezhogin)
Mark Streit1		Draft (9/262, ’04)	FA (NYI, ’08)
Ryan McDonagh		Draft (1/12, ’07)	Trade (NYR, ’09): with C. Higgins and P. Valentenko for S. Gomez, T. Pyatt, and M. Busto
Matt Carkner		Draft (2/58, ’99)	FA (SJS, ’01)
Corey Locke		Draft (4/113, ’03)	Trade (MIN, ’08): for S. Belle
Michael Leighton1		Waivers (PHI, ’07)	Trade (CAR, ’07): for 7/192 ’07 (S. Kishel)
Alexei Kovalev		Trade (NYR, ’04): for J. Balej and 2/51 ’04 (B. Graham)	FA (OTT, ’09)
Matt d’Agostini		Draft (6/190, ’05)	Trade (STL, ’10): for A. Palushaj
Jaroslav Halak		Draft (9/271, ’03)	Trade (STL, ’10): for L. Eller and I. Schultz
Marc-Andre Bergeron		FA (MIN, ’09)	FA (TBL, ’11)
Brett Clark		Draft (6/154, ’96)	Expansion Draft (ATL, ’99)
Cédrick Desjardins1		FA (QMJHL, ’06)	Trade (TBL, ’10): for K. Rammo
Dominic Moore		Trade (FLA, ’10): for 2/?? ’11	FA (TBL, ’10)
Mikhail Grabovski		Draft (5/150, ’04)	Trade (TOR, ’08): for G. Pateryn and 2/32 ’10 (J. Knight, BOS)
Mike Komisarek		Draft (1/7, ’01)	FA (TOR, ’09)
Christopher Higgins		Draft (1/14, ’02)	Trade (NYR, ’09): with R. McDonagh and P. Valentenko for S. Gomez, T. Pyatt, and M. Busto
Maxim Lapierre		Draft (2/61, ’03)	Trade (ANA, ’10): for B. Festerling and 5/??? ’12

¹ Not currently on active roster.

The current distribution, as of the trade deadline:

• 3 teams have four (ANA, CGY, TBL)
• 1 teams has three (NSH)
• 11 teams have two (ATL, BOS, COL, CBJ, DAL, FLA, MIN, OTT, STL, TOR, VAN)
• 8 teams have one (DET, EDM, MTL, NJD, NYR, NYI, PHI, PIT)
• 7 teams have none (BUF, CAR, CHI, LAK, PHX, SJS, WAS)

Whereas the Oilers had a ton of teams with just one ex, the Habs have a ton of teams with two and a bunch more with none. I could be more insightful, but since this post is four months late, I’d rather just kick it out the door and put actual thought in come October.