SNN Predicts: 2010 Conference Quarterfinals

Welcome to the third annual SNN Predicts series of articles (fourth overall, if you count the 2004 version done on the forums, lost to the mists of time but notable for the fact that I went 0-4 in series involving the Flames), in which we act like we know what we’re talking about and make our (mostly) blindingly obvious predictions, with a shocking amount of success, considering some mainstream reporters usually wind up under .500 by the time the Stanley Cup is finally awarded somewhere around Canada Day. Round One in the East seems like a cake walk, which is why someone is going to pull off the shocking upset, and Round One in the West seems much more open, which is why every team you’d expect to win will. It’s the way of the world. Countdown to the first article pronouncing Vancouver “Canada’s team,” and urging Canadians to root them to our first Stanley Cup since 1993? Let’s say T minus ten days.

Matt and Gerard were comically late getting their entries to me, so this goes up mere minutes before the start of the playoffs. But it’s on time! Improvement from last year! After the jump, let’s see some predictions…

Not really much to say about tonight’s game that hasn’t been said already. The Caps’ stars left their gameplan in a bin, and all tried to do it all themselves. The Habs block a million shots, Halak stops the other million, and it’s 2-1 for the bleu, blanc, et rouge over the red, white, and blue.

Conference semis start tomorrow. We’re on the clock, gentlemen.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

(1) Washington vs. (8) Montreal

Playoff History: None. Most of the years where both teams have actually been good enough to make the playoffs together came during the divisional era, when it would’ve been very tough for them to meet anyway.

Previously On…Survivor: The Caps dropped in seven to the Penguins in the conference semis, while Montreal bowed out in four to the Bruins in the first round.

Season Series: Surprisingly, tied 2-2. Even more surprisingly, the team with the most skills competition wins in this series is Washington (1): the Habs won both of theirs during real hockey (one regulation and one OT).

Doogie Says: This is being touted as one of those series that “could” end in upset. Sure, if Client Jaroslav Halak stands on his head (fun fact: the Habs are the second-worst team in the East at getting outshot by playoff teams), the midgets find a way to best both Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov (one is more likely than the other), and if the Canadiens don’t fall asleep trying to maintain slavish devotion to The System by Jacques Martin, it’s possible. Hell, given the number of 6-5 games these two clubs have played the last couple of years, they may even be able to outgun them. But given the way they backed into the playoffs — had they not gotten that loser point from Toronto in Game 82, they’re watching both the Flyers and Rangers do post-season battle from a golf course in Ile Bizard — and the fact that their best power-play sniper is the injured Glen Metropolit, and just given the fact that they lost in overtime to fucking Toronto for Christ’s sake, this is a team going nowhere fast. They can steal a game, maybe even two, but an upset? So not happening. Capitals in five.

Hoop Says: Is there any reason other than hope to think that the Canadiens can hold off the Caps? No. Capitals in 5.

Matt Says: Backing into the playoffs is never a good thing. Capitals in 5.

Gerard Says: Caps in 6, because the Habs have played them surprisingly tight this year.

	2	6	5	6	1	1	1	3
	3	5	1	3	2	4	2	4

Postmortem: Remember how I said that I really didn’t think it was possible for Montreal to limit Washington’s chances to the point where the Habs’ stars could keep up with the Caps’ stars, because of how shitty they’d been down the stretch? Yeah, yeah, I think the entire hockey world outside of Montreal fell for that. A large portion of this victory goes to Jaroslav “.978 SVP in Games 5-7″ Halak, who will also rightfully get most of the press, but a bunch of the credit also goes to the defence that laid down in front of a good chunk of the 26 shots blocked per game on average and did an excellent job limiting Alex Ovechkin’s opportunities in particular — Spacek and Gill in particular were in Ovechkin’s face seemingly every time he came in on the rush. Heck, the Habs’ PK was at least partially focused around stopping Ovechkin and letting the rest of the team play catch and try to adapt, and they did so with aplomb, to the tune of 32/33 or 97.0% efficiency. I’m not convinced Halak or the Habs will be able to replicate this feat against Pittsburgh, because it’s just so unlikely, but maybe for tonight I should turn off my rationality and let myself be a fan for the first time in a while: you’re wrong more often, but it’s usually a lot more fun.

As an aside, I should really point out that John Carlson — hero of the World Juniors for the United States in Saskatoon this past Christmas — had a whale of a series, and Karl Alzner didn’t look out of place in his G7 call-up. The future of Washington’s defence is bright, and I bet we see both of them in the regular lineup next October.

(2) New Jersey vs. (7) Philadelphia

Playoff History: You would think these two would’ve met frequently in the divisional period, but the Devils were garbage for the first half and Philly was garbage for the second half of that time, so no dice. The Flyers do account for the only playoff series in Colorado Rockies history, though. They also played a couple of high-profile conference finals in the inter-lockout period, both ending in New Jersey Stanley Cups.

1978 PRE	1995 CF	2000 CF	2004 CQF
2-0	4-2	4-3	4-1

Previously On…Survivor: The Devils were stunned by the Whalercanes in seven in the opening round last year, while Philly was less stunned by Pittsburgh in six in that same round.

Season Series: Figure this out: Philly’s 5-1 against Jersey this year. A couple of them were even decisive. I had no idea.

Doogie Says: Philadelphia’s problem for as long as I’ve been alive, it seems, has been goaltending. They tried once again to fill the gap left by the crazy outline of Ron Hextall trying to murder Chris Chelios on the ice over twenty years ago with Ray Emery. Unfortunately, he seems to have ripped up every structure attached to his pelvic girdle and may never play again. Seriously. This has led to a game of musical chairs in the crease, as goalies continually drop like Spinal Tap drummers until only Brian Boucher remains. Philly’s goal differential has slowly been sliding downward the last little while, and while Jersey had their struggles for a while this year, with Marty playing less like Marty than we’re accustomed to during the middle portion of the season and Jamie Langenbrunner seemingly on the outs with Jacques Lemaire, but the Devils have actually been rolling the last little while, provided they actually score (the Devils have been held to two goals or fewer in nine of their last twenty, including being shut out by the lowly Oilers). Besides, the second round is where the latter day Devils tend to fall apart, as Marty suddenly buckles under the weight of another 90-game season. For this round, it’ll last longer than it probably should, because damned if the Flyers aren’t tenacious, opportunistic bastards, but Devils in seven.

Hoop Says: Martin Brodeur vs Brian Boucher: who would you take? Ignore the regular season record. Devils in 6.

Matt Says: I’m going to have to side with Hoop on this one: I think Brodeur will be the difference. Devils in 6.

Gerard Says: Flyers in 6.

	1	5	2	1	0	1
	2	3	3	4	3	4

Postmortem: Clearly, I should’ve listened to the nagging doubts I had about Jersey’s ability to consistently generate offence, especially given the season series against Philly. (Wonder how this’ll affect Ilya Kovalchuk’s free agent marketability?) Still, who knew that Brian Boucher would rediscover the game he had ten years ago in this series? I really did not think he’d be the better goaltender, and it’s not like he stole the series or anything, either.

(3) Buffalo vs. (6) Boston

Playoff History: The Adams Division says hi.

1982 DSF	1983 DF	1988 DSF	1989 DSF	1992 DSF	1993 DSF	1999 CSF
3-1	4-3	4-2	4-1	4-3	4-0	4-2

Previously On…Survivor: The Bruins lost to the Whalercanes in overtime of Game 7 last year, while the Sabres haven’t seen the inside of the postseason since their last division title in 2007. Which may be why I’ve forgotten how ugly that fucking slug is.

Season Series: 4-2 Bruins, albeit with one shootout victory in there. Also, four of the six games were decided by one goal, and the other two were decided by two.

Doogie Says: The Bruins are another trendy underdog pick because of the absurd numbers Tuukka Rask put up this season, reminding some of Miikka Kiprusoff circa 2004. I would probably be tempted to take them as well, but no Marc Savard means the Bruins are in a world of trouble offensively. Yes, they won the season series, but most of those games came before Matt Cooke ended Savard’s season, and I have no faith in Boston’s popgun offence — the last to 200 goals this season — to be able to beat another Vezina candidate in Ryan Miller. While Buffalo’s got some injury woes of their own right now, though Connolly and Hecht are expected back for Game 1, I think they started out in a better position, in terms of depth. There will be a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games here, but in the end, it’s the Sabres in six.

Hoop Says: Divisional matchups in the playoffs are always the most frightening. Chara is the difference. Bruins in 6.

Matt Says: I didn’t really watch much of the Sabres this year, so obviously, this goes to the team with the better commercials. Bruins in 5.

Gerard Says: Buffalo in 7. Looking at the season series, I think the East is gonna be a lot tighter than everyone thinks.

	2	3	1	2	4	3	2
	1	5	2	3	1	4	4

Postmortem: What do you know, I totally underestimated the Savard-less Bruins. I really didn’t think that scoring by committee was going to work out, but it proved to be enough behind Tuukka Rask’s goaltending. I would suggest that the Bruins are probably still boned against the Pens, but if Montreal wins their series, it’s Boston-Philly, and that’s a much better matchup.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Ottawa

Playoff History: The closest thing we have to an, “oh, not you assholes again,” matchup. They’ve met twice in the last three years, with this being the rubber match. The victor in each series, incidentally, went on to lose in the Stanley Cup Finals.

2007 CQF	2008 CQF
4-1	4-0

Previously On…Survivor: The Penguins, you may have heard, won the Stanley Cup last year. Ottawa did not. Their last trip to the playoffs, though, did end in a Senator scoring the Cup-winning goal: Chris Phillips into his own net, Steve Smith-style, against Anaheim in 2007.

Season Series: Tied 2-2. Bizarrely, no game was decided by fewer than three goals.

Doogie Says: I have no faith in the Senators. Take away that eleven-game winning streak, and they’re just another bad bubble team in an Eastern Conference full of them. They have the worst goal differential of the playoff pool by quite a bit, and Pittsburgh is deeper and better at every position. This is another series that shouldn’t, and won’t, be close. Penguins in five.

Hoop Says: I know the Sens are a sexy upset pick. But really Pittsburgh is the better team. Penguins in 5.

Matt Says: I think Ottawa will manages to put up a fight, but overall, I don’t see them winning. Penguins in 6.

Gerard Says: Jesus Christ. Every Pens-Sens game this year has been a blowout and they each took two. Let’s say Pens in…7.

	4	2	4	7	3	4	4
	5	1	2	4	4	3	2

Postmortem: Thanks to that noted goalscorer Matt Carkner and a heroic effort in net by Pascal Leclaire, we got an extra game between these two. The biggest surprise isn’t so much that Crosby dominated the series, but that he finished with fourteen points in five games (he was held pointless in Game 6). I’m not sure I want to be Boston or Montreal, whomever faces Pittsburgh in Round 2: with both Crosby and Malkin going, and the depth contributing, these guys are as dangerous as ever.

Western Conference Quarterfinals

(1) San Jose vs. (8) Colorado

Playoff History: Three close series, though two of them came when Colorado was scary good.

1999 CQF	2002 CSF	2004 CSF
4-2	4-3	4-2

Previously On…Survivor: San Jose got embarrassed — again — by the Ducks in the first round, while Colorado decided to take a spin at the draft lottery. Well played, Colorado.

Season Series: Tied 2-2, with one Colorado win coming during Percentagepalooza on opening night, and one coming in the shootout.

Doogie Says: Sorry, Matt, but your team is all kinds of no good at all. They’re the only playoff team in the West to get outshot (and handily so) by non-playoff teams, yet they posted a massive goal differential against them, confirming my season-long observation that they’re riding percentages like a mechanical bull. Sure, San Jose’s got issues — I don’t trust Nabokov as far as I can throw him, for example — but this is not the time for those issues to rear their ugly heads. When the Sharks face better competition in Round Two, they’re going to be in trouble, but if there’s a weak sister in this bunch, it’s Colorado with a bullet. Sharks in four.

Hoop Says: Will San Jose find yet another way to collapse in the first round? Doubt it. Colorado is out of gas, Sharks in 6.

Matt Says: Despite what I may have said above, I’ve got to go with my team and their penchant for winning games they shouldn’t. Avalanche in 6.

Gerard Says: The season series is 2-2. The Sharks have a history of choking. Heatley and Thornton disappear in the playoffs. Marleau has a career year and Colorado’s goaltending can steal games. Given a seven-game series, Colorado is younger (will tire less) and less prone to arrogance (they’re surprisingly old for their ages). Colorado is going to take this. Mark my words. MARK THEM! Avalanche in 6.

	1	6	0	2	5	5	4
	2	5	1	1	0	2	2

Postmortem: Two Colorado wins due to pucks going off of San Jose D in OT or late in the third, and a whole lot of Craig Anderson being otherworldly. But really, we knew all season that Anderson was the only reason Colorado was within a country mile of the playoffs: the only question is, why didn’t I take that into account in making this prediction? Boy, was that short-sighted.

(2) Chicago vs. (7) Nashville

Playoff History: None. Nashville’s still new at this playoffs thing.

Previously On…Survivor: The Hawks got shown up pretty good by the Red Wings in the conference finals, 4-1, while Nashville just barely missed the dance.

Season Series: 4-2 Chicago, all in regulation, and all before New Year’s.

Doogie Says: Poor Nashville. Every year, they enter the playoffs (or come close), have such high hopes, then they run into a good team, put up a valiant fight, but ultimately for naught. That being said, I don’t expect them to go down without a fight, simply because Chicago’s goaltending is prone to nights of epic collapse seemingly without reason. But while goaltending could cost Chicago the Stanley Cup, it won’t cost them against Nashville, because their offence just isn’t good enough — Patric Horqvist came out of nowhere to score 30 goals, but there’s only two guys with more than 50 points — and their special teams are just plain bad (16.4% PP, 24th; 77.1% PK, 28th). It is interesting to note, however, that despite their offensive juggernaut status, Chicago actually has a pretty middling power play themselves, at 17.7% (16th), but a solid PK at 85.3% (4th). However you want to look at it, though, even given Chicago’s weaknesses, I don’t think Nashville is capable of exploiting them. This series will go on longer an anyone expects, but ultimately, the guys you expect to prevail will. Blackhawks in seven.

Hoop Says: The Preds will give the Hawks all they can handle. But Chicago is too deep. Hawks in 6.

Matt Says: Chicago. Still scary. Hawks in 6.

Gerard Says: Chicago in 4.

	1	2	1	3	5	5	4
	4	0	4	0	4	3	2

Postmortem: Fourteen seconds. The Predators were fourteen seconds from taking their first-ever 3-2 lead in this series, but a Patrick Kane shorthanded goal, followed by a Marian Hossa OT winner (after he’d been assessed a major — figure that out) led to the same old script playing out in Music City. It’s too bad, because Nashville gave the Blackhawks everything they could handle throughout the series, at least when they weren’t on that anemic excuse of a power play. I feel really bad for Preds fans, honestly: they keep getting teased, then having their hearts mercilessly broken by usually-superior teams. It’s like being an Oilers fan in the ’90s, really. Hopefully, they find their Marchant goal someday soon.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) Los Angeles

Playoff History: Towel Power propelled the Canucks to the Finals in ’82, while Gretzky propelled the Kings to victory in ’91 and ’93. Since then, bupkis. (Since then, the Kings have missed the playoffs far more often than not.)

1982 DF	1991 DSF	1993 DF
4-1	4-2	4-2

Previously On…Survivor: The Canucks collapsed against Chicago in the conference semis, losing 4-2, while LA hasn’t been to the post-season since Britney Spears was only driven crazy by a dude in a song. (Too old of a joke?)

Season Series: 3-1 Vancouver, with one win in the shootout. Those three wins, though, came in the first half of the season, while LA’s single win came just two weeks ago, to the tune of 8-3. Not that it’s predictive of much, but…

Doogie Says: I want the Kings to advance. Really, I do. I still like Ryan Smyth, and I still don’t like…well, pretty much anyone on the Canucks. And their fans are still complete fucking douchebags. Scott Reynolds at C&B presents some decent evidence to suggest the Kings can pull off the upset, too. But I can’t believe that Luongo’s going to continue to stink like he has, though Hockey Night in Canada‘s preview show did suggest that the loss of Willie Mitchell might be the difference. Plus, Vancouver’s got one of the deepest offences out there, with six 25-goal scorers. For some reason, I have a hunch LA will keep it close — I actually like their defence quite a bit, all things considered — but I can’t see them pulling the upset like some have predicted. Canucks in seven.

Hoop Says: This will be a learning experience for the Kings. Too much talent in Vancouver. Canucks in 5.

Matt Says: The evil part of me wants to see the Canucks get swept [ed: "Evil?" Nay, sir, the civilized side of you.], but I think this one will be a long series. Canucks in 6.

Gerard Says: LA in 7.

	3	2	3	6	7	4	4
	2	3	5	4	2	2	2

Postmortem: Boy, if not for Vancouver’s PK laying the biggest egg in playoff history through four games (what were they at, 40% at one point?), this series probably isn’t even close. Certainly, once they got their shit together and Luongo started playing like Luongo, they became the team I expected to see going into things. But while everyone talks about the Sedins, Mikael Samuelsson, the Detroit castoff, the guy who was left off Team Sweden at the Olympics then promptly told his national ice hockey federation to go fuck themselves, leads playoff scoring with seven goals in six games. I mean, look, I’ve got him in my regular-season pool, so I know what he can do, but what the hell?

(4) Phoenix Arizona vs. (5) Detroit

Playoff History: The Detroit Red Wings terminated the existence of the Winnipeg Jets on April 28, 1996, with a 4-1 victory at Winnipeg Arena. The two franchises also met in 1998, a year the Wings won the Stanley Cup.

1996 CQF	1998 CQF
4-2	4-2

Previously On…Survivor: Detroit made their second straight Stanley Cup Finals, losing to Pittsburgh in seven. The Coyotes haven’t made the playoffs since Brit–wait, I already did that one. Shit. Um, let’s just say it’s been a while.

Season Series: Tied 2-2. Phoenix required OT (but oddly, not a shootout) to win both of theirs, while both of Detroit’s were taken in regulation.

Doogie Says: First, regarding that little name change at the top, it should be pointed out that it seems all but assured this team will be called the Arizona Coyotes next year, unless the NHL has a complete conniption fit over it (unlikely) or decides in favour of “Glendale Coyotes” instead (riiiiiight), so we might as well get used to it now. Anyway, I had high hopes for the Coyotes running into someone like LA or Nashville, because I’m pretty sure they could handle either of those teams; the one team I was afraid of was Detroit, and wouldn’t you know it, they win out while LA gets owned by Devan Dubnyk, and here we are. Detroit is only this low because of all the injuries they sustained to basically every player of note in the first half. Once everyone came back, they played like the Detroit Red Wings, and I expect nothing less in this series. It should also be pointed out that Phoenix led the League with a whopping 14-6 record in the shootout, and as we’ve seen from past experience, that shit never holds up, and more to the point, is totally irrelevant to the playoffs. Ilya Bryzgalov is a hell of a goalie, and will keep the Desert Dogs in it, but Detroit is Detroit, and once again, it seems unlikely that anyone in their path will be able to stop them. Red Wings in six.

Hoop Says: Phoenix will keep a couple games close but the Wings are in fine form. Red Wings in 5.

Matt Says: I don’t know if I like Detroit’s chances this year. Let’s go with the mongrels. Coyotes in 7.

Gerard Says: Detroit in 6.

	3	4	4	0	1	5	1	3
	2	7	2	3	4	2	6	4

Postmortem: This was, in one sense, a very opportunistic series. When Detroit started looking old and tired, and when Jimmy Howard started playing like a rookie goaltender in the playoffs, the Coyotes were able to exploit it. When Phoenix got sloppy (Game 2) or nervous (Game 7), as young teams do, the Red Wings were the Red Wings, as they ever were. The story of the series, though, might be special teams. In their three wins, the Coyotes were 6/13; in their four losses, they were 1/20. Detroit, meanwhile, was 2/16 in their three losses and 5/18 in their four wins. The contrast is less stark for Detroit, mind you, and the ineptitude of Phoenix’s power play, much like Nashville, really hurt them when it counted: they failed to convert on a 5-on-3 late in the second period of Game 7 when the score was only 3-1, then Brad Stuart came out of the box and scored on a breakaway to put it on ice. It’s too bad, though, that Shane Doan was unable to return, because that could have made for a more even game, particularly early, and a much more interesting conclusion, especially since the Coyotes were able to win two of three with Doan in the lineup and pushed Detroit to seven even without him. I think Detroit may be more vulnerable than they’ve been in past years, because of Howard’s inconsistency and the aging of some of their stars, especially on defence, but clearly, when the vets are on, as they were in Game 7, they’re still one of the most dangerous teams in hockey. The Sharks will have their hands full.