Hitmen Game Eve

1998 CF	2005 CSF	2007 CSF	2009 CF
4-1	4-3	4-2	4-0

	2	3	6	4	6	4
	4	2	3	3	1	1

So yeah. I didn’t actually post anything on the conference final this time around, partially due to illness, and partially due to finals. My bad. I’ll make up for it a little here before looking at the stats and figures for the Ed Chynoweth Cup Final (silent “E” in Chynoweth, apparently) between Calgary and Tri-City.

To be honest, I didn’t really expect the Hitmen to win this series. I mean, I guess you shouldn’t be surprised when the regular season champions earn a berth in the League final for the second consecutive year, but at the same time, these Wheaties were the highest-scoring team in the Dub by 45 goals, they had five players in the top 20 in League scoring (Calgary had only League scoring champ Brandon Kozun), and they were hosting the Memorial Cup, and when was the last time a Memorial Cup host went out before the League final? Plus, Brandon had seriously had our number, to the tune of 3-0-1 in four games this year, with the only loss being a SOL in the first game of the year. They owned us. There was no cause for optimism, no real reason to believe that things would change. I mean, just look at how the NHL playoffs have turned out, at least through the first round: even the upsets have at least made sense when you look at the season series.

I think the turning point might have been when Ian Schultz scored the OT winner in Game 2. To that point, the Wheat Kings had been the demonstrably better team, yet Martin Jones had finally started to put on the kind of goaltending performance we’d been expecting all playoff. Then in Game 3, despite outshooting the Hitmen 21-10, the Wheaties emerged from the first period down 4-0! While Matt Calvert scored a natural hat trick shorthanded in the second period (!!) to make it close, the Hitmen were able to regroup and earn the 6-3 victory with their best period of the series to that point. In Game 4, it was a similar story, this time with the Hitmen going down 2-0 early then clawing their way back with four consecutive goals before Brenden Walker made it a nail-biter late. In Games 3 and 4, there were times when the Wheat Kings looked like the dominant team I expected, but then there were times when they looked decidedly average, like they were expecting things to fall into place for them as a matter of their talent, much like the Hitmen seemed to at times during their series last year. While Calgary also had their decidedly lacklustre moments in both games, Martin Jones held them in when they maybe didn’t deserve it, then timely goals from Tyler Fiddler (two goals in 0:19 in Game 3, the latter into an empty net) and Kris Foucault (two goals in 1:36 in Game 4) helped carry them to victory. Finally, in Game 5, a game I expected Brandon to pull out all the stop for, the Hitmen played their most complete, dominant game of the entire playoffs, and arguably the entire season. They outshot the Wheat Kings 27-12 and outscored them 3-0 through two periods, partially due to a horrendously untimely and costly Toni Rajala penalty (recapped by yours truly in the comments here) but mostly due to sound fundamentals in all three zones. When co-captains Matt Calvert and Brayden Schenn took matching misconducts 68 game seconds apart, you knew there would be no returning from this hole, that frustration had overriden all good sense this Wheat Kings team had, and that against all expectations, the Hitmen would not only oust the Brandon wheat Kings, but do so in their shortest series to date in these playoffs, at just five games.

So now we look forward to the Tri-City Americans, a team I don’t think I’ve ever seen in person, now that I think about it. Actually, wait, I have. I’m looking at the game sheet, and I remember Pechurskiy playing that game because it was right after he’d mopped up for the Penguins when they got shellacked by the Canucks in Vancouver on Hockey Night. But other than that and their snazzy logo (and weird jerseys with the stripe curling around under the arms and back behind the nameplate — you have to see it, I guess), I got nothin’. While the WHL’s official site breaks it down over here, let’s take a gander at the relevant stats:

• First, the special teams. Regular season ranks out of all 22 WHL teams; playoff ranks amongst all 16 teams and amongst the final eight, to alleviate some of the sample size problems created by teams ousted in the first round.
  • Calgary Regular Season: 29.0% PP (1st), 87.5% PK (1st)
  • Tri-City Regular Season: 28.0% PP (2nd), 78.5% PK (15th)
  • Calgary Playoff: 23.9% PP (8th/4th), 82.0% PK (3rd/1st)
  • Tri-City Playoff: 28.6% PP (4th/1st), 78.8% PK (7th/5th)

  Both teams have a killer PP, though TC’s been better in the playoffs, but the Hitmen have a decidedly better penalty kill in both the regular season and playoffs. Slight advantage Calgary.

• Tri-City scored 272 (3rd) and allowed 193 (4th), while Calgary scored 269 (4th) and allowed 177 (2nd). Calgary finished 52-17-3 (107 pts, 1st overall) while Tri-City finished 47-22-3 (97 pts, T-4th overall). Advantage Calgary.
• Tri-City keeper Drew Owley has put up outstanding numbers, ranking first amongst playoff goalies with at least 180 minutes played at 2.14/0.931; Calgary’s Martin Jones put up 2.61/0.905, which while not completely inspiring, is much better than it was. In the regular season, on the other hand, Jones led the League with a 2.21 GAA and was 4th with a 0.919 SVP; Osley had a 2.51 and 0.918 (both 5th). Let’s call this slight advantage Tri-City, though again, Jones has come on stronger lately.
• Brandon Kozun led the WHL in scoring with 32-75-107 in the regular season, and leads with 7-19-26 through three rounds of the playoffs. Tri-City’s lone regular season entrant into the Top 20 was Brendan Shinnimin (27-55-82, 14th), and he now places 3rd on the playoff list with 8-14-22, just behind Kozun and recently-eliminated Craig Cunningham of Vancouver. The Hitmen and Americans each have four entrants in the Top 20 in playoff scoring, though all four of Tri-City’s top scorers have bested Calgary’s second-best, Joel Broda. Then again, Calgary’s also gotten a more balanced scoring attack, with twelve total players in the Top 40 compared to Tri-City’s eight. While Tri-City’s top end has performed slightly better than Calgary’s, depth always tends to win me over in the playoffs. Advantage Calgary.
• Season series. In their lone meeting this season, the Hitmen defeated the Americans 3-0 at home on January 31, with Martin Jones recording a 35-save shutout. Advantage Calgary; I really have nothing else to day, since nothing other than Pechurskiy stands out to me about that evening. (Though I see now it came right after the Wheaties beat us 6-3 on the strength of five goals in 11 minutes; now that evening, I do unfortunately remember.)
• Playoff history: N/A.

I’m not going to actually come right out and make a prediction. I don’t want to do that, because that requires thinking, and I hate doing that when I don’t have to regarding junior hockey. It should be pointed out, though, that despite the much greater disparity in regular seasons standings points last year compared to this year (24 vs. 10), the Kelowna Rockets played a style that stymied the Hitmen utterly in their late-season matchup, and had brought in a late-season ringer in Mikael Backlund; the Americans, in a one-game sample, didn’t, nor did they bring in anyone of that calibre at any point during the season. Calgary, meanwhile, imported an entire line plus from Kamloops that’s proven an important part of their late-season surge and playoff effort. Plus, while last year’s Hitmen had basically strolled through the playoffs on the strength of pure talent alone, this year’s team has had to work for their spot in the final battle, especially against the high-flying Wheat Kings last round. I think the best thing I can say is that I’m less scared of this final than I was last year’s, but by no means am I going to unequivocally state that they’re going to win, and that the Wheaties will get their shot at vengeance. Too much can happen over the course of a seven-game series for me to commit that strongly about something I’m so emotionally invested in. I’m just going to sit hunched forward on the edge of my seat, watching and yelling frantically and waving my flag like a maniac, and hope for the best; it’s all I can really do.